CNN data analyst Harry Enten delivered some more bad news for Vice President Kamala Harris and her Democratic Party during an interview segment over the weekend. Enten said that voter registration in the key state of Pennsylvania is heavily favoring Republicans this election cycle, and it’s a sure sign that the GOP and Trump are poised to win.
“In November 2020, you saw Democrats at 47%, and Republicans at 39%. That was an eight-point advantage. Look at where we are today. Yes, more voters in Pennsylvania are still registered as Democrats than Republicans, but it’s now just 44% to 40%. They’ve got a four-point gap. Republicans have cut that Democratic advantage in half in such a short period of time,” Enten said to begin the segment.
“The GOP leads by a point in party identification right now. The average when the Republican Party loses is the Democrats ahead by eight. When the Republican Party wins, the average party ID advantage for Democrats is at three. Republicans right now, are doing even better than the average when they win,” Enten explained. CNN’s Manu Raju then asked: “What have you found about how voters are leaning at this point compared to 2020?”
“Yeah, I mean, the voter registration fresh numbers—if you want a stat that Republicans absolutely love, it’s this one, right? Pennsylvania voter registration, you register by party in that state. You go back to November 2020, you see Democrats at 47%, and Republicans at 39%. That was an eight-point advantage. Look at where we are today. Yes, more voters in Pennsylvania are still registered as Democrats than Republicans, but it’s now just 44% to 40%. They’ve got a four-point gap. Republicans have cut that Democratic advantage in half in such a short period of time. They’ve gone out, registered voters, and there are folks who have come over to their side who were previously registered Democrats,” Enten responded.
“The question is: Where are they picking up ground? This, to me, says it all. If you look at Pennsylvania counties where the GOP has gained in registration, in counties where less than 50% of the population is non-college white voters, Republicans have gained just a point. But in areas where over 50% are non-college whites, look at this—Republicans have gained six points on average,” he added.
“They’re picking up ground in the areas you’d expect — non-college white-dominated areas, coal country in the northeast, southwest outside of Pittsburgh. The bottom line is, the registration trends we’ve been seeing over the last few cycles — with Republicans dominating among non-college white voters — are very much showing up in party registration,” Enten noted further.
That led Raju to jump back in and ask: “What does this tell us nationally? Are we seeing this in other battleground states? Is this changing the registration advantage for Democrats?” Enten replied: “Alright, so if this was just Pennsylvania, where we’re seeing this trend, I don’t think we’d necessarily be doing a segment on this if it weren’t part of a larger picture.”
He went on to say that nationally, more Americans now identify as Republican than as Democrat, which is a reversal of a years-long trend.
Disclaimer: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.