Fox News anchor Bret Baier, in his nightly “Path to 270” pre-election segment on Friday, laid out a map that was increasingly favorable to former President Donald Trump as his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, continues to tank in the polling.
“If you look now, considering where the average of polls are, that gives us some sense of where the Electoral College stands tonight, and that’s really the difference, and that’s how you win the race. 270 is the number you have to get to. These yellow states are the toss-up states that we’ve talked about, and as we stand in this what-if scenario, 225 to 219 here,” he said.
“Now, if you take the Real Clear Politics average of the recent polls as of tonight, now understanding that some of them are one point, less than one point, a couple points within the margin of error, but if you said tonight was the election, Kamala Harris would win in Nevada, she would win in Wisconsin, she would win Nebraska’s district there, 242 to 219. As of tonight, however, Donald Trump would win Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, and he would win in Pennsylvania. 296 to 242, and he would be the 47th president of the United States,” Baier continued.
“When you see these articles, Democrats are very concerned about where the trend is going. This is one of the reasons, because they look at the possibility of that sweep of the Rust Belt and the Sun Belt. But that sweep could favor the former president even more,” said the anchor.
“A new Wall Street Journal survey out today shows him leading Harris in Nevada by six points. That would give the former president a razor-thin edge in the Real Clear Politics average of polls. In our what-if scenario tonight, we would award him Nevada’s six electoral votes, making the new outcome 302 for Trump, 236 for Harris, and increasing Democratic jitters,” Baier said.
The Wall Street Journal released poll results on Friday surveying swing state voters for the 2024 election. While overall figures suggest a tightly contested race, the detailed breakdown in a key traditionally Democratic swing state reveals a different narrative. The survey covered seven states, including Nevada, which Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and President Joe Biden in 2020. In both elections, former President Donald Trump came close to victory but fell short.
Polling 600 Nevada voters from September 28th to October 8th, Politico reported that Trump leads Harris 47% to 42%, a margin just within the poll’s 5-point error range. Other pollsters are expected to quickly conduct their own surveys to determine if a significant shift is occurring.
Las Vegas, a liberal stronghold, last voted Republican during former President George W. Bush’s 2004 victory. The city is approaching majority-minority status, meaning that most voters in Las Vegas identify as nonwhite. The demographic shift has continued to grow in recent years, making Trump’s lead even more significant and highlighting that, despite facing the first female presidential candidate of color from a major party, he is still performing exceptionally well within minority communities.
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