With less than a month to go until Election Day, the competition in Senate battleground states is heating up. In Wisconsin, the race for the seat currently held by Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) has become highly competitive. After enjoying a comfortable seven-point lead in August, Baldwin’s advantage has shrunk to just two points against Donald Trump-backed Republican challenger Eric Hovde, who stands at 47% to Baldwin’s 49%, according to the latest Swing State Project survey from Cook Political Report.
While a recent poll from Marquette Law School still shows Baldwin leading by seven points, 53% to 46%, private polls from both Democratic and Republican sources indicate that the race is extremely tight, falling within the margin of error, and they view the Marquette results as an outlier.
The shift in the race is not unexpected in Wisconsin, a state known for its sharply divided political landscape. The 2022 Senate race was decided by a narrow margin of just one point. Although Baldwin currently leads among independents by eight points, 50% to 42%, political reporter Jessica Taylor notes that there has been a significant 11-point shift toward Hovde among this crucial group since August. Hovde, a venture capitalist funding his own campaign, has successfully united Republican support and made substantial inroads with independent voters, making the race more competitive as Election Day draws closer — though early voting began last month in several states.
The Senate Leadership Fund, a major super PAC associated with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), has recently allocated $17 million for advertising in Wisconsin, according to The Hill. Since winning the mid-August primary, Baldwin and her Democratic allies have outspent Hovde and the Republicans by roughly $10 million. A victory for Hovde could indicate a strong performance for Republicans on election night, potentially paving the way for a Senate majority of at least 53 seats.
National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) spokesman Tate Mitchell said in a statement: “After 25 years in Washington, Tammy Baldwin has become the typical D.C. politician, voting in lockstep with the failed Biden agenda and hiding her Wall Street partner’s stock trades from her constituents. Wisconsinites are ready for change, and Eric Hovde has the momentum.”
In the 2020 presidential election, Wisconsin was a critical battleground state. Democrat Joe Biden won the state by a narrow margin, capturing 49.6% of the vote compared to 48.9% for incumbent Republican President Donald Trump. This close contest highlighted Wisconsin’s importance in the electoral landscape, as Biden flipped the state blue after it had narrowly supported Trump in 2016. The state’s 10 electoral votes were vital to Biden’s overall electoral college victory, further reinforcing Wisconsin’s status as a swing state capable of influencing the outcome of national elections.
