A national poll reveals a significant shift in the mood of the American electorate following last week’s first, and possibly only, vice-presidential debate. The Yahoo News/YouGov poll indicates that the presidential race has become tighter after the debate between Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, with former President Donald Trump getting a bump.
Various post-debate panels of undecided voters highlighted Vance’s strong performance, while Walz appeared stilted and shaky as he entered the national spotlight for the first time. Since its last poll, Yahoo News/YouGov has recorded a narrowing of the race between Harris and Trump, with the Democrat now leading the Republican by just 2%, at 48% to 46%.
The survey, which sampled 1,714 registered voters from October 2nd to 4th, reveals that Harris’s challenges worsen upon closer examination of the crosstabs. When third-party candidates are factored in, her lead among independent voters narrows to just 1%. Additionally, when focusing solely on those most likely to vote, Harris’s advantage disappears entirely, resulting in a tie at 47% for both candidates. With a margin of error of +/- 3%, the results indicate that Trump could potentially lead with as much as 49%, compared to Harris’s 45%, according to Reuters.
If future polling aligns with these results, it could confirm that any post-debate surge for Harris has faded. Many observers believe she managed to provoke President Trump with her pointed criticisms, particularly when she accused him of being more concerned with his debate crowd sizes than the influx of illegal migrants at the border. Trump quickly countered, stating that it was Harris, as “border czar,” who allowed the southern border to deteriorate.
Consistent with the presidential results, a “generic ballot” question asking voters about their plans to vote for Republicans or Democrats shows no signs of improvement for Harris since the debate. This question typically gives Democrats an edge of about 3 to 4%, according to Reuters. However, among viewers who watched the Vance-Walz debate on CBS, 41% felt that the Ohio Republican won the night, compared to just 32% who thought the Minnesota Democrat performed better. Additionally, the percentage of Americans who now believe Vance is ready to serve as vice president has increased to 37%, up from 30% in late August.
Several pollsters have reported a significant increase in the approval rating of Republican vice presidential nominee Vance following his commanding debate victory over Walz this month. Polls and focus groups conducted in the hours after the debate have yielded highly favorable results for the Trump-Vance campaign. Vance performed exceptionally well in social media polls and was declared the winner in surveys conducted by CNN, NBC News, Fox News, and others. The debate also seems to have contributed to a substantial rise in Vance’s favorability among voters.
According to a CNN poll, Vance began the night with a favorability rating of -22. After the debate, it had declined to -3 among the network’s left-leaning viewers, marking a 19-point swing over the course of the debate. According to a CBS News/YouGov poll, 40 percent of respondents had a favorable view of Vance before the debate. This increased to 49 percent after the debate, while the number of people who viewed him unfavorably decreased by eight points over the course of the night. Additionally, four percent of respondents remained undecided after the debate.
Left-leaning pundits were even forced to admit that Vance had a favorable showing. “I think we shouldn’t lose track, I think even in the civility of the fact that J.D. Vance came to this debate to land a bunch of punches, and he did. He landed a lot of punches in between all the niceties and all of that,” said CNN’s Abby Phillip.
Disclaimer: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.