A recent poll from Pennsylvania’s key bellwether counties, Erie and Northampton, indicates challenges for Vice President Kamala Harris as she works to establish a foothold in this critical state. With under a month to go until Election Day, former President Donald Trump is leading by a slim margin, suggesting a shift in these historically influential areas.
The Cygnal poll, conducted from September 30 to October 1, reveals that Trump holds a slight advantage over Harris, with 49% of likely general election voters supporting him compared to 48% for her. Although the lead is narrow, it carries significant implications for Harris’s campaign. In a shift from the 2020 election, these counties, which supported Trump in 2016 and then switched to Biden in 2020, are now leaning back toward the GOP. This change is driven by growing concerns over the economy and immigration.
Crucial insights from the poll reveal that voters view Trump as the candidate better equipped to tackle the nation’s challenges. By a margin of 49% to 46%, respondents in these counties believe Trump’s policies are more beneficial for people like them. While Trump has a favorability rating of -4, Harris is slightly worse off at -8, suggesting that the former president’s image among swing voters is more favorable. Notably, men under 55 show strong support for Trump, favoring him by a substantial 24-point margin, whereas Harris faces a daunting 36-point net unfavorable rating in this demographic.
Another obstacle for Harris is the perception of the Democratic Party among voters. The poll reveals a net negative rating of -13 for Democrats in these counties, compared to just -4 for Republicans. Despite Democrats having a 4-point registration advantage, the trend of disillusioned ancestral Democrats leaving the party persists.
Interestingly, the poll highlights speculation regarding Harris’s choice of Tim Walz as her running mate instead of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. Some Democrats regret this decision, believing a Harris-Shapiro ticket would have performed better in these counties, with a projected one-point lead (48-47) over Trump. Shapiro’s local popularity might have provided Harris with a crucial advantage.
Voter dissatisfaction with the current state of the country under the Biden-Harris administration is clear, with a striking 64% of respondents believing the nation is on the wrong track. Trump’s message, which positions him as the advocate for the working class, seems to resonate in these industrial counties. Notably, among union households, Trump leads Harris by 16 points (57-41), indicating a significant shift among blue-collar voters who traditionally supported the Democratic base. Additionally, Trump maintains an advantage among voters earning under $100,000 a year, a key demographic in the region.
Disclaimer: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.