Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign is experiencing renewed anxiety following a new poll that indicates a significant shift among Arab American voters in the upcoming 2024 presidential election. The poll, conducted by the Arab American Institute (AAI), reveals that Harris and former President Donald Trump are nearly tied, with 42% of Arab Americans supporting Trump and 41% backing Harris. These results highlight increasing concerns within the Harris campaign, particularly regarding the Biden Administration’s response to the Gaza crisis, which seems to be a crucial factor for Arab American voters.
Arab Americans, who have historically been a vital Democratic constituency, are now evenly divided between the two major parties, with 38% identifying as Democrats and an equal percentage identifying as Republicans. This marks a significant rebound for Democrats, who witnessed Arab American affiliation with their party drop to an all-time low of 23% just last year. However, this new figure is still well below the community’s traditional alignment with the Democratic Party.
The poll also reveals a significant decline in Arab American support for the Biden-Harris ticket since 2020. While Harris has regained some ground lost by President Joe Biden in recent months, her current support among Arab Americans stands at 41%, which is still 18 points lower than Biden’s 2020 performance with this group, where he received backing from 59% of Arab American voters.
One of the most notable findings of the poll is the significant impact of the Gaza crisis on Arab American voters’ decision-making. An impressive 81% of respondents indicated that Gaza is an important issue influencing their vote in 2024, ranking it as the second most critical issue for the community, just behind jobs and the economy. Many Arab American voters have expressed disappointment with the administration’s approach, feeling that it has not done enough to support Palestinian civilians affected by the ongoing conflict.
The poll indicates that both Harris and Trump could significantly enhance their appeal to Arab American voters by adopting a more assertive stance on Gaza. If Harris were to advocate for an immediate ceasefire and call for unimpeded humanitarian aid to Palestinians, her support among Arab American voters could rise to approximately 60%, capturing a substantial share of Trump’s current base. Similarly, Trump would experience a boost in support, potentially increasing to 55%, if he were to make such demands.
Another concern for both campaigns is the declining enthusiasm among Arab American voters. The poll indicates that only 63% of Arab Americans feel enthusiastic about voting in the upcoming election, a notable decrease from the community’s historically high turnout rates. Among younger Arab Americans aged 18 to 29, voter enthusiasm is even lower, with just 55% expressing excitement about participating in the 2024 election.