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Trump On Pace For Major Electoral Win Over Harris

By ELECTION 2024

Polling data from Trafalgar Group and Insider Advantage now suggest that former President Donald Trump is poised for a potential landslide victory in the 2024 presidential election. The latest polling indicates that Trump holds a significant lead in several key battleground states, pointing to a solid path to victory come November.

The updated electoral map shows Trump with 296 electoral votes compared to Vice President Kamala Harris’s 226. Notably, Trump is gaining ground in swing states such as Pennsylvania (+2.2), Michigan (+2.2), and Wisconsin (+1.1), which were critical in previous elections. These states, which typically lean Democratic in close races, appear to be shifting in favor of the former president.

In Arizona and North Carolina, Trump has a narrow lead of one point, while Nevada and Georgia remain highly competitive. Trafalgar’s data indicates a dead heat in Georgia, a state that has seen intense competition between both parties in recent elections. The shift is further supported by Senate odds, which show a 73% chance of Republicans regaining control of the upper chamber, a development that could significantly alter the political landscape in Washington.

As Trump gains momentum, attention also shifts to his vice-presidential running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance. Known for his populist views and strong connections to middle America, Vance debated Democratic vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz on Tuesday night. The debate, conducted in a charged atmosphere, addressed key issues such as the economy, immigration, and foreign policy. While both candidates stood firm on their party platforms, post-debate polls indicated that Vance’s direct approach resonated more with voters.

An “overwhelming majority” of focus group participants told CNN that they believed Vance won the debate. They reported that the Ohio Republican’s confidence and swagger were evident in the much-anticipated debate, which left Walz at a disadvantage.

The virtual panel of 15 swing state voters mostly agreed that former President Donald Trump’s running mate commanded the two-hour debate. One participant called Vance “battle tested and very ready” to serve as the next vice president. “You can just see that he went to Yale,” the man told the CNN host. “He’s very intelligent, and he reassured a lot of people.” The panel, convened by pollster Frank Luntz, served as vindication that Vance’s preparations heading into Tuesday night paid off.

Another participant praised Vance for demonstrating a “strong control of the facts,” particularly during a heated exchange where he criticized Walz and Vice President Kamala Harris for infringing on Americans’ First Amendment rights by pressuring social media companies to ban or blacklist users who spoke out against pandemic lockdown mandates. “He ran the whole show,” another surmised while a third added, “He remained steady during the whole performance, and I was very impressed with him being very sincere and authentic.”

A snap poll conducted by Politico in the hours following the debate reveals that both Republicans and Democrats retreated to their respective corners when asked who won the night. CNN’s panel suggests that Vance may have performed particularly well in appealing to undecided voters who tuned into the first and only debate between the two running mates. Additionally, Walz’s struggle to maintain his composure throughout most of the night certainly didn’t help his case.

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