Despite being a “purple” state with only six electoral votes, Nevada has the potential to significantly impact Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign and create a pathway to victory for former President Donald Trump, according to experts cited by the Daily Caller News Foundation.
Although Nevada has consistently leaned Democratic since 2008, the contest between Trump and Harris is becoming increasingly competitive in this swing state, which could adversely affect Harris’s campaign. While Nevada’s electoral influence is smaller compared to other battleground states, the Silver State’s unique economy and demographic profile could play a crucial role in determining which candidate ultimately wins the White House, experts told the outlet.
“There are very few paths to victory that do not involve Nevada,” Dheeraj Chand, a Democratic strategist, told the DCNF. “It would be a big blow to her when we take those electoral votes,” GOP pollster John McLaughlin told the DCNF. Jeremy Hughes, a GOP strategist based in Nevada, added: “One of the particularly interesting things about it is it’s the only state that President Trump lost twice. Now, he has a chance to flip it this cycle.”
Polling between Trump and Harris remains exceptionally close. RealClearPolling averages show the Republican nominee trailing Harris by just 1.4 points. The latest Hill/Emerson poll places both candidates evenly at 48%, while a recent American Greatness poll gives Harris a slim one-point lead over Trump, the DC reported. Nevada has been a Democratic-leaning swing state for nearly two decades, though victories have been by narrow margins. In both the 2016 and 2020 elections, former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and President Joe Biden each defeated Trump by 2.4 points in Nevada.
“Republicans were able to win a gubernatorial election, which I would say, outside of Brian Kemp, was maybe the bright spot for Republicans on election night [in 2022],” Hughes told the DCNF. “So it has moved a little to the right. Voter registration in the state has also moved significantly. In fact, I think more Republicans than Democrats will vote in this election.”
Nevada is represented by two Democratic Senators, Jacky Rosen and Catherine Cortez Masto, along with a Republican governor, Joe Lombardo. Of the state’s 17 counties, 15 have supported the Republican candidate in the last two presidential elections. Tourism makes up over 15% of Nevada’s economy, with visitors contributing more than $55 billion to the state in 2023. Trump’s proposal to eliminate taxes on tips was aimed at supporting Nevada’s unique economic landscape, a position that Harris also adopted during her campaign trail appearances.
“Nevadans are focused on the issues that hit closest to home—kitchen table issues like rising costs, stagnant wages, and affordable housing,” Michael McDonald, Nevada GOP chairman and senior Trump advisor, told the DCNF. “When we ask ourselves if we are better off than we were four years ago, for most of us, the answer is no. The cost of living has gone up, gas prices remain high, and inflation continues to erode the value of our hard-earned paychecks.”
“President Trump’s emphasis on helping Americans keep more of their hard-earned money, from no tax on tips, no tax on Social Security, and no taxes on overtime work, is resonating with voters across our state,” McDonald told the DCNF. “As Nevadans look to the future, they are increasingly turning to President Trump’s economic policies as the solution to getting ahead, not just getting by.”
