With the general election just six weeks away, former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris in the critical battleground state of Arizona. A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll shows Trump ahead by 6 percentage points, with 48% support compared to Harris’ 42%. The poll also reveals a tighter race in Maricopa County, Arizona’s largest county, where Trump’s lead is reduced to 47% versus Harris’ 43%.
Among Latino voters in Arizona, nearly 47% support Harris, while Trump has secured 35%. The current lead for Trump in Arizona presents a challenge for Harris, who initially saw a boost in the state’s polls after becoming the Democratic frontrunner. Arizona has been a competitive battleground state in the last two presidential elections. Both Harris and Trump are intensively campaigning in Arizona. Harris recently visited Douglas, AZ, while Trump held a rally in Tucson earlier this month. Additionally, both campaigns have sent their top surrogates to the state in recent weeks.
In 2016, Trump narrowly won Arizona, continuing the state’s Republican trend since 1996. However, in 2020, the state flipped blue for the first time in over two decades, with Biden winning by a narrow margin. This shift was attributed to changing demographics, including an increase in Latino voters and a shift among suburban voters away from the GOP. Arizona’s electoral votes were crucial in determining the overall outcome of the 2020 election.
According to the poll, inflation and the economy are the top concerns for 27% of respondents. When asked about the state of the economy in Arizona, only 5% described it as excellent, while 26% considered it good. Both “fair” and “poor” ratings were about 33% each. Overall, 52% of respondents felt they were financially worse off than four years ago, compared to 39% who reported being better off.
Immigration has become a key issue for Arizona voters, with 21% identifying it as their top concern. Trump’s campaign has emphasized strict immigration policies, including a pledge to reinstate and intensify his previous measures, such as mass deportations. The Biden-Harris administration, on the other hand, faces criticism for its handling of the border, which has experienced record-high encounter levels since the pandemic. That’s especially true of the vice president, who was placed in charge of solving the crisis — which she obviously has not done, given the historic levels of illegal crossings throughout her joint term with Biden.
On Friday, acting ICE Director Patrick Lechleitner disclosed that more than 13,000 noncitizens with murder convictions are currently residing in the U.S. after entering the country under the Biden-Harris administration. Additionally, over 15,800 noncitizens with convictions for sexual assault are also living in the U.S. In total, ICE is monitoring 662,566 noncitizens with criminal records, including 435,719 who have been convicted of crimes. Trump is sure to use these new figures against Harris on the campaign trail.