Ohio’s 2024 Senate race is proving to be a tight contest as incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) faces increasing pressure from Republican challenger Bernie Moreno, who is backed by former President Donald Trump. Brown, who is running for a fourth term, has been a prominent figure in Ohio politics with his progressive policies earning him strong support among Democrats. However, the state’s recent shift towards a more Republican-leaning stance has put Brown’s historically safe seat at risk.
Ohio remains a crucial battleground state, having supported former President Donald Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, which adds to the challenge for Senator Sherrod Brown’s re-election campaign. A new poll from Napolitan News, released on Wednesday, shows Moreno with a slight edge, leading Brown 48% to 46%. This 2-point lead marks the first time Moreno has led the race, indicating that the contest could become increasingly competitive as the November election approaches.
Moreno’s campaign has emphasized economic growth, reducing government regulation, and aligning with Trump’s policies. Trump’s endorsement has been particularly valuable in rural and suburban areas, where he still has strong support. Moreno’s platform has also connected with voters worried about the economy and border security, which are key issues for the Ohio electorate.
According to an ActiVote poll released earlier this week, Moreno’s support has increased mainly due to his popularity among white voters, male voters, and those aged 30-64. The poll also indicates that Moreno is ahead among Republicans and Independents, which are important voting groups that could determine the election’s outcome. Brown continues to have strong support from urban voters, women, and low-income voters, who have traditionally been part of his base. Despite Moreno having a slight lead, the race is still within the margin of error, and with weeks remaining until Election Day, the situation could change again.
The outcome of the Senate race is heavily influenced by the upcoming 2024 presidential election. According to Napolitan, Trump is currently leading the Ohio polls by 11 points over his Democratic opponent, making the state a crucial battleground for both the Senate and presidential races. In the past, candidates in lower-level races have benefited from strong performances by presidential candidates of their party. This gives Moreno an advantage as he benefits from Trump’s popularity in the state.
Despite Moreno’s lead, Brown remains a formidable opponent. In his last Senate race, Brown defeated Republican Jim Renacci by nearly 7 points, demonstrating his ability to outperform other Democrats in a state that leans red. However, the political landscape has since changed, and with Republicans favored to take control of the Senate, the stakes have never been higher.
Should Moreno’s lead hold, Republicans would be one step closer to flipping the Senate. Republicans are already expected to flip seats in West Virginia and Montana, where the Democrats are struggling to compete in a pro-GOP political environment. A win in Ohio could solidify Republican control, particularly if Trump retakes the White House.
