Gallup’s latest annual survey reveals that self-identified Republicans have reached a historic high, with 48% of U.S. adults now aligning with the GOP, which marks the highest level of Republican affiliation in the survey in decades, which is great news for former President Donald Trump. In contrast, the percentage of voters leaning toward the Democratic Party has decreased to 45%, down from 48% in 2020 when President Joe Biden was elected. This shift in party allegiance suggests that Republicans, under the leadership of Trump, could be poised for a strong performance on November 5th.
The poll shows that a majority of voters prefer GOP control over key factors affecting the election. Republicans are trusted to handle the country’s “most important problems” by a margin of 46-41%, and 50% of Americans believe Republicans are best suited to keep the nation “prosperous.” In contrast, President Joe Biden’s job approval is at a low 39%, with only 22% of respondents expressing satisfaction with the current direction of the country.
More U.S. adults identify as Republican or say they lean toward the Republican Party (48%) than identify as or lean Democratic (45%).
Full story: https://t.co/g5sIDx6gl7 pic.twitter.com/UuSq1p76Wj
— Gallup (@Gallup) September 24, 2024
Favorability ratings for both parties are closely matched, with Republicans holding a slight edge at 43-42%. However, when it comes to keeping America safe from international threats, the GOP leads Democrats by a substantial 14 points, 54-40%. An important factor driving Republican gains is the preference of 55% of Americans for reduced government involvement in their lives.
Increased Republican activism has been apparent for months to those closely following American politics. Before Biden exited the race, he led Trump by just 8% among voters under 30—a significant drop from the double-digit margins Democrats usually enjoy with that demographic. While Vice President Kamala Harris has gained some ground with younger voters since launching her campaign, mainstream polls indicate her support still lags behind the levels Biden achieved in 2020.
CNN political data guru Harry Enten dropped some more bad news on Harris and her campaign during a Tuesday morning segment with host Kate Bolduan. Specifically, Enten said that, according to the network’s polling data, Harris was not only losing support from minority voters but was also polling behind President Joe Biden with black and Hispanic voters in 2020.
“Yes, let’s start with black voters. And, you know, big part of the Democratic coalition. This is the Democrat versus Trump margin. Look, Kamala Harris is up by 66 points among black voters. That is up from where Joe Biden was earlier this year, right, when he got out of the race, at 51. He was up by 51 points over Donald Trump,” Enten said.
“But this 66-point lead is way lower than that 80-point lead that Joe Biden had over Donald Trump at this point in the 2020 cycle. It’s 14 points lower. So, the bottom line is, yes, Joe Biden was really struggling with black voters. Harris has climbed up a little bit. But she’s not anywhere near the level that Joe Biden was at this point just four years ago,” he added. Bolduan then asked: “And then what about Hispanic voters?”
“All right, so this is the same trend idea, right? All right, what you see here again, Democrat versus Donald Trump. Yes, Kamala Harris is ahead by 15 points. That’s certainly significantly better than Joe Biden was doing just a few months ago when it was a seven- point advantage. But again, look at this, this 15-point advantage that Harris has is significantly less than Joe Biden was doing at this point four years ago. It’s nearly – it’s only about half that number,” he explained.
“So, again, we’re seeing that double-digit shift from where we were four years ago at this point, not just among black voters, but Hispanic voters as well. Kamala Harris doing better than Joe Biden was doing earlier on this year, but not anywhere near as well as he was doing four years ago at this point,” Enten said.
