A national pollster known for its left-leaning tendencies is showing former President Donald Trump with a lead if the election were held today. This indicates that even mainstream outlets cannot diminish the rising support he’s garnering following a second assassination plot.
Quinnipiac, known for its contrasting results compared to conservative pollsters like Rasmussen, recently released a survey showing former President Donald Trump with a 1% lead over Vice President Kamala Harris among likely voters. Trump garnered 48% of the vote, while Harris received 47%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver each secured 1%, with 3% of voters still undecided. This represents a significant shift from last month’s Quinnipiac poll, which had Harris leading Trump 49% to 47%.
Enthusiasm among supporters is emerging as a crucial factor in the race, according to the survey. Approximately 70% of Vice President Harris’s supporters express enthusiasm for her, while 71% of Trump supporters show similar excitement. Favorability ratings for both candidates are mixed; Harris has a 47% favorable rating and a 48% unfavorable rating, whereas Trump holds 47% favorable and 50% unfavorable ratings. Additionally, 49% of respondents believe Trump is more attuned to the needs of people like them.
Immigration and the economy are top concerns for voters this fall, and the poll indicates that Trump remains favored on these issues. Harris, on the other hand, garners more support from voters focused on nuclear weapons, preserving democracy, gun violence, and abortion rights. Additionally, 51% of respondents trust Trump more with handling a major crisis, a sentiment reminiscent of his role in managing vaccine development during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Nearly two-thirds of voters are hoping for a second debate between Trump and Harris. Additionally, about three-quarters express concern about politically motivated violence, a sentiment heightened by Trump’s recent second assassination attempt. His supporters have criticized Harris and President Joe Biden for branding him a “threat to democracy,” fueling further controversy. That said, on Tuesday, Gina Raimondo, the administration’s commerce chief, said voters should “extinguish” Trump for good, sparking another wave of criticism over the left’s provocative comments.
Quinnipiac’s findings align with a New York Times/Siena College poll released earlier this week, which shows a shift among swing voters in Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia away from Vice President Harris. In Arizona, Trump now leads Harris by 5%, reversing last month’s vice presidential lead. In North Carolina, Trump has a 2% lead, compared to Harris’s previous 2% advantage. Similarly, in Georgia, Trump leads by 4% after Harris had been ahead by the same margin in mid-August.
The survey, which included nearly 2,700 voters and was conducted the week following Trump’s second assassination attempt, suggests that public sympathy might be shifting in his favor. With a 3% margin of error, Trump’s leads in Arizona and Georgia are statistically significant.
