Vote-by-mail data from three crucial states reveals a significant decline in the Democratic advantage seen in 2020, a trend one expert believes is favorable for Republicans and former President Donald Trump. “It’s great news that Republicans are starting to early vote,” Jimmy Keady, the founder and president of JLK Political Strategies, a Republican consulting firm, told Fox News Digital.
The Democratic advantage in vote-by-mail requests has notably decreased in Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, as reported by Decision Desk HQ. The Democratic lead has dropped by over 5% in Florida, nearly 15% in North Carolina, and more than 35% in Pennsylvania. This decline in mail-in voting preference is seen as a positive development for Republicans and former President Donald Trump. According to Keady, mobilizing voters for early in-person voting or mail-in ballots can free up campaign resources, allowing them to focus on lower-propensity voters who are crucial in deciding elections, Fox News reported.
“I’m sure voters complain all the time about text messages, about getting mail, about getting robocalls to go vote,” Keady said. “Campaigns are now sophisticated enough that once you go vote, those stop… once a voter goes to vote, and those stop, that allows resource allocation from that voter to another voter.” Mobilizing lower-propensity voters could be crucial in states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina, which are anticipated to remain swing states with very tight margins, he noted.
Vice President Kamala Harris leads by less than a point in Pennsylvania, while former President Trump holds a similarly narrow lead in North Carolina, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average. This close competition suggests that effective voter turnout efforts on both sides could be the key to determining the election outcome. “It definitely signals that A, there’s turnout… but B, also that the base has adopted, kind of being able to accept that early voting is a proper and mostly secure way to vote,” Keady said.
This shift will assist Republicans in closing the gap with Democrats in an area where they were at a clear disadvantage in 2020, Keady observed. It could potentially tip the balance in a closely contested election in favor of the GOP. “As Republicans, we have to start getting the base to early vote, to do mail-in ballot, to do these things that we know are safe and secure, to get people out to the polls. The Democrats have done this really well, for years,” he added.
