A recent poll has indicated a notable shift in Alaska’s congressional race, with Republican challenger Nick Begich now leading incumbent Democrat Mary Peltola by four percentage points in the first-choice ballot. This represents a significant turnaround from earlier polls, where Peltola held a strong lead, and good news for House Speaker Mike Johnson as he fights to maintain the GOP majority.
According to the poll conducted from September 14-17, which surveyed 400 likely voters, Nick Begich now leads Mary Peltola by 44% to 40%. Notably, Begich also maintains his lead in the later rounds of Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system, suggesting a strong position for the Republican challenger. Peltola’s declining favorability among Alaska voters is a major factor in this shift. Once considered a rising star in the Democratic Party, Peltola’s approval rating has significantly dropped. The NRCC’s internal memo highlights that as voters become more familiar with Peltola’s record, their approval of her diminishes.
“In summary, the more voters learn about Peltola’s record, the less they like. Mary Peltola is taking on water despite her initial spending advantage, driven in large part by Republican ads highlighting her support for the Biden agenda and votes against Alaska’s veterans and those actively serving in uniform,” the memo says.
Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska)
Peltola’s net favorability rating has dropped sharply from +24% in April to just +2% in mid-September. This decline is attributed to a sustained Republican advertising campaign targeting her voting record, particularly her alignment with President Joe Biden’s policies. The NRCC has been particularly effective in criticizing Peltola for supporting the Biden administration’s agenda, especially on energy issues crucial to Alaskans, and for votes perceived as harmful to the state’s significant veteran population.
NRCC spokesperson Ben Petersen underscored this momentum in a recent statement, noting that “Alaskans fed up with Democrat Mary Peltola voting for the Biden-Harris agenda and against veterans and military troops are choosing Nick Begich.”
Nick Begich
The poll also reveals a significant shift in voter sentiment. A majority of those who have seen, read, or heard recent information about Peltola now hold an unfavorable view of her. In August, Peltola led by a margin of 12% in this category, but by mid-September, Begich has surpassed her, reflecting a notable change in public perception.
Begich’s narrow lead indicates that Republicans are in a strong position to potentially flip this seat, marking a significant setback for Democrats. With the election approaching rapidly, Peltola faces a challenging task to alter the current perception of her and win back the trust of voters who have become disillusioned with her leadership.
