Former President Donald Trump has taken the lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in three key swing states, according to recent polling. The latest New York Times-Siena College poll of likely voters, conducted between September 17 and 21, shows Trump leading Harris in Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina. In Georgia, a state Trump narrowly lost to Joe Biden in 2020 by just under 12,000 votes, he now leads Harris by 49% to 45%.
The previous poll in Georgia, conducted from August 9 to 14, had the candidates tied at 47% each. Meanwhile, in Arizona, Harris now trails Trump 45% to 50%, a shift from August when Harris led Trump 49% to 45%. In North Carolina, which Trump won in 2020, he has gained a slight edge with a 49% to 47% lead over Harris, up by three points since the last poll.
However, as the New York Times notes, the poll was conducted before the scandal involving Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson’s pornography forums emerged, raising concerns among Republicans about its potential effect on Trump’s campaign efforts in the state. But that said, Trump did not mention Robinson at all during a rally in North Carolina over the weekend, likely an attempt to distance himself from the budding controversy there, where reports say an email belonging to Robinson was discovered making visits and lewd comments to an adult content site.
Among independents in the three states, 43 percent leaned towards the Republican ticket, while 38 percent favored the Democratic ticket and 18 percent were undecided or refused to answer. Consistent with national trends, 26 percent of likely voters identified the economy as the most crucial issue influencing their vote, followed by immigration and abortion, each at 16 percent. Despite varying intentions, 55 percent of those polled believed Trump would manage the economy better than Harris, who garnered confidence from only 42 percent on this issue, according to Newsweek.
The former president also leads on immigration issues, with 54 percent supporting Trump compared to 43 percent for Harris. However, Trump trails Harris on abortion, with only 41 percent of respondents trusting him on the issue versus 53 percent for the vice president. Regarding the impact of Donald Trump’s policies, 45 percent of likely voters in the Sunbelt said they felt “helped” by the former president, while 34 percent felt they had been negatively affected by his administration.
“This marks a significant lead over Harris, whose policies only 37 percent of respondents said would help people like them, with 42 percent claiming that they would be hurt if the vice president were elected,” Newsweek noted further, citing the survey’s data. “In what appears to be an ominous sign for the incumbent Harris, the polls found that voters were [not only] worried about candidates’ proficiency when it came to the key issues, but the future of the country as a whole.”
In these three states, only 27 percent of respondents believe the U.S. is “on the right track,” while 63 percent think the country is “headed in the wrong direction.” Additionally, 44 percent feel that the problems facing the U.S. are so severe that America is “in danger of failing.” Although Kamala Harris is currently leading Donald Trump nationally with 48.4 percent to 45.5 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight, the combined 43 electoral college votes from Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina could be crucial in determining the outcome of the November election.
However, only 66 percent of respondents indicated they are “almost certain” to vote in this year’s election, with about 5 percent still undecided between the two candidates. This suggests there remains significant opportunity for both campaigns to sway voters in the sunbelt states, Newsweek noted.
Disclaimer: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.