A leading pollster has provided a new election forecast on the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, essentially declaring the contest a dead heat. Forecaster Nate Silver told CNN on Friday that despite Harris’ early ‘enthusiasm’ bump followed by months of favorable press coverage and few journalists pressing her on her policies, past and future, she and Trump are locked in a toss-up race.
“With all seven states polling so closely, I don’t really have an intuition beyond what’s in our forecast, which is 50-50, almost exactly,” Silver told CNN. “Look clearly, Harris has some kind of momentum post-debate. The thing that would worry me a little bit if I were Democrat is that she had the same momentum earlier on in the campaign and then had a very flat to negative period afterwards. So, can she sustain the good vibe, so to speak, that she had before? You know, to me, Trump seems pretty off-kilter recently. It’s a bit more subjective.”
“But we’re not going to wake up on November 5 with a lot of certainty about the outcome. We might not go to bed on November 5 with a lot of certainty, either. You could even have a recount 2020 style or 2000 style, rather, in one or more key swing states,” he added.
CNN anchor Anderson Cooper also said last week that he is skeptical of polls showing Harris in the lead, citing past underestimations of fTrump’s support in 2016 and 2020. Harris has recently seen a surge in polling, maintaining an edge in the RealClearPolitics average. However, during his appearance on “Late Night with Stephen Colbert” on Thursday, Cooper expressed growing concerns about the Harris campaign’s prospects, suggesting that past polling inaccuracies make him wary of current predictions.
“One of the big stories out there right now is the polling bump for Harris following the debate. Now, I don’t know whether to trust polls. We were supposed to trust them in 2016 and they were wrong. In 2020, they were pretty wrong,” the host said.
“Trump has traditionally underperformed in these polls. I mean, I report on them, I think they are interesting to talk about, and look at, particularly when you dive deep on certain topics,” Cooper responded. “We have some great people that look at polls. But in truth, deep down inside, I don’t think I buy them. Like, I just don’t. It’s like — I’m sure some are accurate. I’m not casting aspersions.”
