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Leading Pollster Drops Bad News For VP Harris’ Campaign

By Updated: ELECTION 2024

One of the nation’s most trusted pollsters is challenging the Democratic narrative that Vice President Kamala Harris is dominating her GOP rival, Donald Trump. Recent data reveals that Trump is performing significantly better at this stage of the election cycle compared to his previous White House campaigns in 2016 and 2020. In an interview with Fox News’ Laura Ingraham on Thursday, pollster Matt Towery highlighted the latest figures, asserting that Trump is currently leading Harris. He criticized the left-leaning media and other pollsters for portraying Harris as the frontrunner despite the data showing Trump’s stronger position.

“Explain how these candidates could be tied nationally, but Kamala is up in Pennsylvania? What does that mean?” Ingraham asked to begin the segment.



“Well, you know, let me just say this. The polling gurus and predictors are going to start telling you over the next month and a half that Harris is gaining speed in these various battleground states,” Towery responded. “They’re somehow going to say that she’s gaining speed in the national polls. I’m just going to predict it. They’re going to say that she’s going to win and Trump will lose. It makes no sense.

“People have to understand. Trump is running way ahead of where he has in the last two cycles that he ran in the national average. I mean, she is much closer than either Biden or, before that, Hillary Clinton. And in these various states, now, you know, everybody has their different way of sampling things. I think all of these states are very tight,” he continued. “But I don’t think there’s any state where anyone has a four or five-point lead right now that’s a battleground state. I just don’t see it, and I don’t believe it.”

Later in the interview, Towery did say that Trump was trailing with the senior citizen vote. “He’s got to concentrate on senior voters, though. He’s down in the polls with senior voters, and that’s what it get him high enough so that he can get above any question about voter turnout, which Democrats are very good at,” he said. “Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, if he carries — Trump carries those three, he wins. Alternatively, if Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan go his way, he loses some of these other states, he wins,” he added.



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Meanwhile, a striking new poll released Friday reveals that Trump is making significant inroads into states that Democrats had expected to hold firm through November. In a head-to-head matchup, Trump is trailingHarris by only 2% in Virginia, despite the state’s Democratic stronghold with prominent figures like Sen. Tim Kaine and former governor Terry McAuliffe, and a progressive base in the wealthy suburbs of Loudoun County. The University of Mary Washington poll indicates that Trump’s standing is well within the 3.7% margin of error. With the inclusion of potential third-party candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Harris’s lead narrows to just 1%.

It’s important to note that RFK Jr.’s potential to draw votes away from Harris is now limited, as he withdrew from Virginia’s ballot earlier this month. Polling had previously indicated that the former Democrat-turned-independent was more likely to pull votes from Trump, whom he has endorsed and pledged to support in November. Nevertheless, the new poll results from Virginia will likely raise concerns within the Harris camp, which had previously enjoyed leads of 3 to 10 points over the past two months, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling data.






Disclaimer: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.