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Reliably Blue State Poll Not Good News For VP Harris

By Updated: ELECTION 2024

A striking new poll released Friday reveals that former President Donald Trump is making significant inroads into states that Democrats had expected to hold firm through November. In a head-to-head matchup, Trump is trailing Vice President Kamala Harris by only 2% in Virginia, despite the state’s Democratic stronghold with prominent figures like Sen. Tim Kaine and former governor Terry McAuliffe, and a progressive base in the wealthy suburbs of Loudoun County.

The University of Mary Washington poll indicates that Trump’s standing is well within the 3.7% margin of error. With the inclusion of potential third-party candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Harris’s lead narrows to just 1%.

It’s important to note that RFK Jr.’s potential to draw votes away from Harris is now limited, as he withdrew from Virginia’s ballot earlier this month. Polling had previously indicated that the former Democrat-turned-independent was more likely to pull votes from Trump, whom he has endorsed and pledged to support in November. Nevertheless, the new poll results from Virginia will likely raise concerns within the Harris camp, which had previously enjoyed leads of 3 to 10 points over the past two months, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling data.

Polling was conducted between September 3rd and 9th, and do not indicate a surge of sympathy for President Trump following the recent assassination attempt. Harris, along with President Joe Biden and other top Democrats, have struggled to respond effectively, denouncing violence while continuing to label Trump as a “threat to democracy.” Notably, the would-be shooter, Ryan Wesley Routh, had previously donated exclusively to prominent Democratic politicians, adding complexity to the situation.

Missteps by Harris are exacerbating Democratic concerns about November. New Gallup results reveal that unfavorable opinions of Harris are rising, while Trump’s favorability is improving. Despite both candidates being viewed unfavorably by a majority, Harris has seen a 5% drop in favorability, while Trump has gained 5%. The survey, which polled 1,000 likely voters and has a margin of error of ±2.5%, indicates these changes are statistically significant.

Even more striking is Vice President Harris’s dramatic 25% drop in favorability among independent voters over the past month. Only 35% of unaffiliated voters now view Harris favorably, compared to 44% who favor Trump. This shift occurred less than a month after Harris’s official Democratic nomination, ending a brief “honeymoon” period that many had hoped would provide a lasting boost in the polls.

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