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New Gallup Survey Show Trump Surpassing Harris In Key Metric

By Updated: ELECTION 2024

Pollsters continue to show that Vice President Kamala Harris has reached a plateau among voters who are frustrated with her vague promises and simplistic campaign narrative that she is the best candidate solely because she isn’t President Joe Biden.

Gallup confirmed this trend on Wednesday by releasing new data indicating that the number of Americans with unfavorable views of Harris is increasing. At the same time, former President Donald Trump is gaining favor each day. Although both candidates remain unpopular with the majority, Harris has seen a 5% decrease in her favorability ratings, while Trump has experienced a corresponding 5% increase. The survey, which polled 1,000 likely voters, has a margin of error of ±2.5%, making these changes statistically significant.



Harris experienced a significant decline in support among independent voters, losing 25% of her favorability within a single month. Currently, only 35% of unaffiliated voters view Harris favorably, compared to 44% who prefer Trump. This dramatic shift occurred less than a month after Harris was officially nominated by the Democratic Party, bringing an end to the initial “honeymoon” period that analysts had hoped would provide a lasting boost in the polls. Unfortunately for her supporters, this optimism proved to be unfounded.

Despite spending more than Trump, Harris has struggled in intense battles within key battleground states. Earlier this week, former Trump secured a slight lead in Pennsylvania, a state that could be pivotal in determining the election outcome. Late last month, Trump also held a 1% advantage in Wisconsin, a state President Biden won four years ago.

Even when Harris leads, such as in traditionally blue Virginia, her advantage falls within the margin of error. Legendary election forecaster Nate Silver estimated last month that Trump has a 53.1% chance of winning, compared to Harris’s 46.6%. In September, Silver’s projections for Trump’s chances of victory ranged from 55% to 62%.

As the 2024 presidential race intensifies, new data from pollster AtlasIntel, known for its accuracy in the 2020 election, is drawing significant attention. CEO Andrei Roman recently disclosed that Trump has a massive 70% chance of winning, according to their latest figures. In a discussion with AtlasIntel’s Head of US Coverage, Pedro Azevedo, Roman highlighted that Trump’s lead has strengthened even amid the highly charged political climate.

Roman explained that Trump possesses inherent advantages that Harris would struggle to overcome. AtlasIntel’s latest poll shows Trump leading by about 3 points nationally, a margin Roman considers significant, particularly in swing states where the momentum seems to be shifting in Trump’s favor. Despite the media’s overwhelmingly positive coverage of Harris and high-profile endorsements like Taylor Swift’s, Roman noted that these factors have yet to alter Trump’s strong position.

“I would give Trump 70% chance of winning and Kamala 30%,” Roman said. “What more could Kamala do or could her campaign do to reverse the advantage that Trump has nationally? And I don’t really see it at this point.” He went on to say that even though Harris is well-positioned with media backing and several notable stars and public figures on her side, Trump continues to maintain his lead.

Roman also acknowledged the fast-paced and volatile nature of U.S. politics. He pointed out that major events, such as the recent assassination attempt on Trump or Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign, tend to lose public attention quickly. “People forget fast about things, and they’re sort of triggered by new events all the time,” Roman explained. Although Roman assigned Trump a 70% probability of winning, he cautioned that the outcome could still change as election day approaches. He mentioned the notorious “October surprise,” referring to unexpected events that can significantly alter the political landscape in the final weeks before an election.

“Many things change really fast, and who knows what the driver of the vote will be when election day comes,” Roman said, indicating further that although Trump currently has an advantage, unforeseen developments could still change the face and the outcome of the race. Roman concluded by reaffirming his faith in the data but left the door open for future shifts.





Disclaimer: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.