A recent report from a liberal news outlet has raised concerns for Vice President Kamala Harris’s 2024 campaign, suggesting that her support among black voters—a crucial demographic for her success—may be waning. Harris, who has consistently highlighted her strong ties to the African American community, is now facing what POLITICO describes as potential “warning signs” due to decreasing turnout among black voters. During her speech at a Congressional Black Caucus Foundation dinner in Washington, Harris stressed the importance of hard work and community leadership. However, despite her efforts, some members of the Democratic establishment worry that the initial enthusiasm for her candidacy is diminishing.
The potential decline in black voter turnout is especially concerning, given that this group has historically been pivotal in determining election outcomes for Democrats. Harris’s success depends not only on maintaining but also on increasing voter participation in key states where black voters can influence the election. However, POLITICO highlights data indicating a lack of enthusiasm and engagement among this demographic, casting doubt on Harris’s ability to mobilize the base as effectively as necessary.
The outlet reported:
Though there is continuity in platform and campaign staff between President Joe Biden’s and now-Harris’ campaign, instead of a doom-and-gloom warning over lofty democratic ideals, Harris has emphasized a more practical message of freedom focused on economic opportunity and reproductive rights…
In 2020, roughly 90 percent of Black voters supported President Joe Biden, but that was down from closer to 95 percent in the few elections preceding that one. The network exit poll four years ago did show Black voters between the ages of 30 and 44 were twice as likely to support Trump (19 percent) as those 18 to 29 (10 percent), 45 to 60 (10 percent) or 60 and older (7 percent).
Younger Black men, in particular, have been straying from the Democratic party. The NAACP released a poll on Friday that found one in four younger Black men are backing her Republican opponent Trump. The survey, conducted in partnership with HIT Strategies and Hart Research, found overall 63 percent of Black voters favored Harris compared to 13 percent that backed Trump.
The gender gap is significant. Two-thirds of Black women (67 percent) back Harris, but among Black men under 50 Harris’ support plummets to 49 percent. Researchers caution the poll was conducted in early August — before both the Democratic convention and this week’s presidential debate — and say late-deciding voters may break for Harris.
In the 2020 presidential election, black voter turnout experienced a notable rise compared to previous elections, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. About 63% of eligible black voters cast their ballots, up from a 60% turnout in 2016. While this participation rate was significant, it did not exceed the record highs seen in 2008 and 2012 during Barack Obama’s campaigns.
Last month, during an appearance on “Fox and Friends,” former President Donald Trump said that the Democratic Party has “conned” black voters during a broad interview. According to a Fox News poll released on August 14, Trump, who received 12% support from black voters in the 2020 election, is projected to gain 26% of black voters in the 2024 election. Co-host Lawrence Jones showed a video clip of Trump’s visit to a Chicago barbershop, where he engaged with voters on various political topics. Trump commented that black voters who “just wanted safety” were facing a “corrupt political system.”
“I like that guy, and I like those people and I watched yesterday as you did it. You are doing fantastically, by the way. I watched yesterday as you did the interviews,” Trump said. “Those are great people. Those are people who just want safety. They don’t want much, he wants to run his barbershop.”
“The people that are getting their hair cut, I was thinking about maybe going there myself, I like the work, maybe they would make my hair look better. I would pay a lot of money for that haircut, they could make my hair look better. Honestly those are great people, those are hard-working people. They are strong, they are tough and they know they are being conned by the Democrats” Trump continued. “You have a corrupt political system in Chicago. Look at the governor, the governor is an incompetent guy. He was thrown out of the family business, Hyatt Hotel; I was partners with them years ago on a job in New York. They threw him out of the business.”
Disclaimer: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.