Democrats in Pennsylvania are facing a challenging situation as new data reveals a sharp drop in mail-in ballot requests, which could threaten Kamala Harris’s prospects in this key battleground state. Compared to the 2020 election, there has been a dramatic decrease of 303,016 mail-in requests from Democrats, while Republicans have experienced a smaller decline of 55,033 requests.
This shift in mail-in ballot trends comes at a pivotal moment for former President Donald Trump, who is preparing to resume his campaign activities in Flint, Michigan, following a recent assassination attempt at his golf club in West Palm Beach. Trump’s potential gains in Pennsylvania could significantly impact his campaign, especially given that he lost the state by just 80,000 votes in the 2020 election.
The numbers reveal a stark contrast: at this time in 2020, Democrats had 1,101,962 mail-in ballot requests, whereas in 2024, that figure has dropped to 798,946. In contrast, Republicans had 376,956 requests in 2020 and now have 321,077. This data highlights a potential boost for Trump in a crucial state. GOP strategist Cliff Maloney noted on X that the decline in Democratic mail-in requests could be “devastating for Kamala Harris.”
? PENNSYLVANIA DATA DROP ??
Mail-in ballot requests R vs D
2020 (50 days out)
GOP: 376,956
Dem: 1,101,9622024 (50 days out)
GOP: 321,077
Dem: 798,946KAMALA IS DOWN 303,016 requests compared to 2020.
Dems are shaking in their crocs!!!
— Cliff Maloney (@Maloney) September 17, 2024
The data is unequivocal: if Democrats can’t reverse the trend, they could face serious challenges in one of the nation’s key battleground states. Both campaigns are heavily investing in Pennsylvania, acknowledging its pivotal role in the election. Each candidate is increasing their staff, injecting substantial funds, and flooding the airwaves with continuous advertising.
Trump has surged in a recent election model from Nate Silver, capturing 61 percent support, a significant increase of 22.3 points from his lowest polling point. According to this model, Trump also has a 63 percent chance of winning in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania and a 52 percent chance in Michigan, both major swing states that he won in 2016 and President Joe Biden won in 2020. This latest forecast is a massive blow to Vice President Kamala Harris, despite most media outlets calling her debate against Trump a victory for her. Here’s a breakdown of Siliver’s data:
? BREAKING: Trump ticks back to being the 61% favorite in Nate Silver’s election model after more polls release
? Trump: 61% (+22.3)
? Harris: 38.7%The model also gives Trump a 63% chance of winning PENNSYLVANIA, and a 52% chance at MICHIGAN.
Silver Bulletin | Sept. 13 pic.twitter.com/URsjPvtt9m
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 13, 2024
Disclaimer: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.