As the 2024 presidential race intensifies, new data from pollster AtlasIntel, known for its accuracy in the 2020 election, is drawing significant attention. CEO Andrei Roman recently disclosed that Donald Trump has a massive 70% chance of winning, according to their latest figures. In a discussion with AtlasIntel’s Head of US Coverage, Pedro Azevedo, Roman highlighted that Trump’s lead has strengthened even amid the highly charged political climate.
Roman explained that Trump possesses inherent advantages that Vice President Kamala Harris, his Democratic rival, would struggle to overcome. AtlasIntel’s latest poll shows Trump leading by about 3 points nationally, a margin Roman considers significant, particularly in swing states where the momentum seems to be shifting in Trump’s favor. Despite the media’s overwhelmingly positive coverage of Harris and high-profile endorsements like Taylor Swift’s, Roman noted that these factors have yet to alter Trump’s strong position.
“I would give Trump 70% chance of winning and Kamala 30%,” Roman said. “What more could Kamala do or could her campaign do to reverse the advantage that Trump has nationally? And I don’t really see it at this point.” He went on to say that even though Harris is well-positioned with media backing and several notable stars and public figures on her side, Trump continues to maintain his lead.
Roman also acknowledged the fast-paced and volatile nature of U.S. politics. He pointed out that major events, such as the recent assassination attempt on Trump or Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign, tend to lose public attention quickly. “People forget fast about things, and they’re sort of triggered by new events all the time,” Roman explained. Although Roman assigned Trump a 70% probability of winning, he cautioned that the outcome could still change as election day approaches. He mentioned the notorious “October surprise,” referring to unexpected events that can significantly alter the political landscape in the final weeks before an election.
“Many things change really fast, and who knows what the driver of the vote will be when election day comes,” Roman said, indicating further that although Trump currently has an advantage, unforeseen developments could still change the face and the outcome of the race. Roman concluded by reaffirming his faith in the data but left the door open for future shifts.
Meanwhile, the social media account “Kamala HQ” on X (formerly Twitter), managed by Kamala Harris’s campaign, has been criticized for its “repeatedly deceptive” practices. The account, @KamalaHQ, has been accused of misleadingly editing and captioning videos to target GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump. Examples include taking Trump’s quotes on immigration out of context and misrepresenting his “very fine people on both sides” comment related to the Charlottesville rally, per CNN’s fact-checker, Daniel Dale.
The @KamalaHQ account — which often targets both Trump and his prominent supporters — has been described by CNN as an “irreverent attack dog.” CNN’s fact-checking report highlights “eight examples of false or misleading video posts from the account since mid-August, including three from just this week.” Some of these inaccuracies and misrepresentations have been scrutinized and contested by the account @KamalaHQLies.
On August 17, the account misleadingly edited a video of former President Trump speaking at a rally in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, to falsely suggest that he was confused about his location. “Trump: Would that be okay, North Carolina? (He is in Pennsylvania).” It included a six-second video clip in which Trump said, while pointing to his left, “Would that be okay, North Carolina? I don’t think so, right,” the post said with this caption: “Donald Trump is lost and confused.” However, the full video clip showed that Trump was pointing to supporters who had come to the Pennsylvania rally from North Carolina.
This week the account posted another video of the former president in which it insinuated that he did not know where he was when it said “Trump: ‘Pennsylvania, remember this when you have to go to vote’ (He is in Arizona).” And it shared just eight seconds of the clip where he said “So Pennsylvania, remember this when you have to go to vote, okay, just remember this: 2,000% increase. This is a small —…”
However, the full clip showed that he did not forget where he was as he spoke about immigration to the Arizona audience, describing how a small Pennsylvania town has “experienced a 2,000% increase in the population of Haitian migrants under Kamala Harris.” He added: “So Pennsylvania, remember this when you have to go to vote, okay, just remember this: 2,000% increase, this is a small town; of all a sudden they got thousands of people.”
Disclaimer: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.