Following the highly anticipated debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, Michigan, a state that had been a stronghold for Harris, is showing signs of shifting. Recent polling data suggests Trump has gained a narrow lead, signaling a potential change in momentum as the general election approaches.
An InsiderAdvantage survey conducted between September 11th and 12th shows Trump leading Harris by a slim margin, 49% to 48%. This represents a notable shift from previous polls in the battleground state, where Harris maintained a consistent lead. The debate’s sharp contrast in the candidates’ platforms appears to have influenced voter sentiment there.
InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery offered insights into the findings, noting that Michigan’s contest is reflective of the broader national battleground landscape. “As is the case in most battleground states, the race is extremely close. While there remains some enthusiasm gap in many of these states, with an advantage to Democrats, Michigan has no gap whatsoever,” Towery said. He added that the race remains especially tight across all age demographics, with Trump enjoying an edge among independent voters—a crucial bloc in the state.
Trump’s lead among independents in Michigan is noteworthy, as this group often plays a decisive role in the state’s elections. The survey revealed that Trump holds a five-point advantage among independent voters, which could be crucial as the election nears. Another surprising result from the Michigan poll is Trump’s growing support among African-American voters, a demographic traditionally aligned with Democrats. Approximately 20% of African-American respondents indicated support for Trump, a significant rise from previous elections. Although pollsters advise caution, suggesting this number might be an outlier, it aligns with national trends showing a slight increase in Trump’s popularity among black voters.
Towery pointed out, however, that Michigan’s African-American population is smaller than in other battleground states like Georgia, so the elevated support for Trump in this demographic may not have as significant an impact on the overall race. “Even if those numbers were reduced to historical levels, the race would still be within the margin of error,” he said. National polling conducted alongside the Michigan survey suggested a similar outcome, with respondents split 48% to 48% in battleground states.
Trump has maintained a substantial lead in Nate Silver’s first 2024 election forecast released after the ABC News presidential debate, which might be the only debate between Trump and Harris before the November election. Following a brief period where Harris gained a slight edge due to a surge in Democratic enthusiasm after President Biden suspended his re-election campaign, Trump has managed to regain and extend his lead in Silver’s August forecast.
As of September 6, Silver gave Trump a 60.1% chance of winning the Electoral College, a significant increase from just a few weeks earlier. Silver, who accounts for factors like response bias in his model, also had Trump leading in several key swing states, notably Pennsylvania. On Wednesday, Silver released his first forecast following the debate. Although post-debate polls have not yet been published, viewers and undecided voters seem divided on who won. Many early post-debate polls have indicated Trump as the clear winner.
In Wednesday’s update to the model, Silver gives Trump a 61.6% chance of winning the Electoral College. Trump is also narrowing the gap in the popular vote, with Harris currently holding a 49.9% chance of winning, while Trump is trailing closely at 49%.
