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Trump Gets Good Election Update Following Debate With Harris

By Updated: ELECTION 2024

Former President Donald Trump has maintained a substantial lead in Nate Silver’s first 2024 election forecast released after the ABC News presidential debate, which might be the only debate between Trump and Harris before the November election. Following a brief period where Harris gained a slight edge due to a surge in Democratic enthusiasm after President Biden suspended his re-election campaign, Trump has managed to regain and extend his lead in Silver’s August forecast.

As of September 6, Silver gave Trump a 60.1% chance of winning the Electoral College, a significant increase from just a few weeks earlier. Silver, who accounts for factors like response bias in his model, also had Trump leading in several key swing states, notably Pennsylvania. On Wednesday, Silver released his first forecast following the debate. Although post-debate polls have not yet been published, viewers and undecided voters seem divided on who won. Many early post-debate polls have indicated Trump as the clear winner.

In Wednesday’s update to the model, Silver gives Trump a 61.6% chance of winning the Electoral College. Trump is also narrowing the gap in the popular vote, with Harris currently holding a 49.9% chance of winning, while Trump is trailing closely at 49%.

Newly revealed statistics involving various facets of Tuesday night’s debate between Trump and Harris show exactly how biased the ABC moderators, David Muir and Linsey Davis actually were. According to an analysis of the transcript, the moderators attempted to “fact-check” Trump several times while never doing the same to Harris. Also, they pressed Trump several times for follow-ups to questions while never pressuring the vice president the same way.

Ryan Saavedra, a senior reporter at The Daily Wire, posted the stats to his X page: “Went through the debate transcript and counted: Trump was fact-checked 4 times Harris was fact-checked 0 times — Muir/Davis pressed Trump 6 times for follow-ups Muir/Davis pressed Harris 0 times for follow-ups — Trump made ?14 false statements Harris made ?16 false statements.”

Several people responded to Saavedra’s post with mocking and derision for the moderators and ABC in general. “Very interesting would love to see a comprehensive analysis on all these laid out for the public before I share information like this because if true it is very important the people understand that the media of ABC news can not be trusted for equality of opinion,” one user wrote.

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