Red state Democrats, already an endangered group, may be on the verge of losing one of their key figures in November, according to new polling. The Montana U.S. Senate race features incumbent Jon Tester (D-MT) facing a strong challenge from Republican Joe Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL who has earned the endorsement of former President Donald Trump. Tester, 68, has served in Washington since 2006, skillfully balancing progressive Democratic policies with positions that have appealed to Montana’s conservative voters, allowing him to maintain their support.
However, as Montana has shifted increasingly red, Tester’s margins of victory have narrowed over the years. Now, after nearly two decades in office, his political tightrope walk may be nearing its end. The Cook Political Report recently shifted the race from a Toss-up to Lean Republican, signaling a difficult path ahead for Tester.
The shift in Montana’s Senate race is a major blow to Democrats, who were already facing significant challenges in their bid to retain control of the Senate next year. The state’s increasingly conservative tilt and the rise of Sheehy, a top-tier Republican recruit, have complicated their efforts. The GOP candidate has proven to be a strong fundraiser and has effectively criticized Tester on various issues that resonate with voters. One notable controversy involved Tester being questioned about his vote to restrict aid to Israel following last year’s surprise attack by Hamas, an issue that has further complicated his standing with voters.
Race rating change: #MTSEN moves from Toss Up to Lean R.
Read @JessicaTaylor‘s latest: https://t.co/aX5bXEP1xL
— Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical) September 12, 2024
Last month’s polling showed Tester slipping behind Sheehy by a narrow margin, with the former SEAL leading 48% to 46% with only 5% of voters still undecided. To avoid losing his seat, Tester is expected to pour significant funds into his campaign. In June, Sheehy reported raising over $14 million, ending the month with $3 million cash on hand, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Meanwhile, Tester has outpaced him, raising nearly $44 million with $11 million remaining in a state where advertising costs are far lower than in large media markets.
With the shift in polling, Democrats are now forecasted to lose control of the Senate. Pollster Larry Sabato, whose “Crystal Ball” ratings are highly respected in the field, currently projects Republicans to control 50 Senate seats by 2025, while Democrats are expected to hold 48, with two races still rated as toss-ups. One guaranteed Republican pick-up is in West Virginia, where Republican Governor Jim Justice is poised to win the seat of retiring moderate Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV). The two toss-up races include Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) faces Trump-endorsed Bernie Moreno, and Michigan, where Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) is competing against former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI) for an open seat.
