While most polls indicate Vice President Kamala Harris is leading in the swing states crucial to the election outcome, two Southern pollsters are challenging this trend, showing former President Donald Trump with a significant lead. Polling from InsiderAdvantage and Trafalgar across seven battleground states suggests Trump is on track to secure 296 electoral votes, implying that Harris may have already lost her momentum.
Matt Towery of InsiderAdvantage, based in Georgia, reported that Trump is leading in Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, and is just 0.4% behind in Georgia. Towery highlighted that both he and Robert Calahy of Trafalgar (which covered Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan) were among the top three pollsters in the 2016 and 2020 cycles. Their polling methodology is noted for capturing some Trump support that other pollsters might miss.
It’s important to note that Trump’s leads are narrow and within the margin of error, so these states could still swing either way on Election Day. However, Towery suggests that Harris may be losing momentum now that the initial excitement around her has faded. “The momentum that we were seeing after the Democratic National Convention has sort of come to an end,” Towery said, the New York Post reported.
According to Towery, the surge in Democratic enthusiasm seen in polls after Harris replaced President Biden has slowed, with the numbers now “close to parity.” He believes the upcoming “make or break” presidential debate will heavily influence the “turnout election.” Towery predicted that if Trump presents a “realistic” version of himself, it could serve as a major turning point, similar to the Carter-Reagan debate in 1980 that essentially sealed the deal, The Post said.
Calahy, based in South Carolina, agreed on the significance of the debate. He noted that the former president might make a statement that “overshadows” the rest of the event, but he believes Harris has “the most to lose” and is in a “no-win situation.” Calahy observed that “conservative Democrats” might be shifting to Trump’s side in greater numbers than those crossing over to Harris, and he pointed out that her reluctance to engage in interviews has left the media feeling “ignored” and “angry.”
Despite favorable polling for Trump, Calahy warned that the “Democratic machine” could reduce his lead by “a point or two.” Consequently, a tight lead in September may not necessarily predict the final outcome.