A Democratic pollster advised her party on Tuesday not to “underestimate” Donald Trump’s ability to attract voters not captured by current polls, raising questions about whether Vice President Kamala Harris will secure an easy win in November.
Polls in swing states show a tightening race between Harris and Trump, with some national polls indicating a slight lead for Harris. However, Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, speaking on the far-left podcast “Pod Save America,” expressed concerns that Trump may have support not fully represented in the polls. Lake, who was previously unconcerned about polls comparing Trump to President Joe Biden, now warns that there could be Trump supporters who are not being adequately captured.
“So originally against Biden I was not at all worried about it. There was no such thing as a shy Trump voter, for God’s sakes… like, we’re gonna make Trump more MAGA? So I was not worried about it at all. I do think now there might be. There may be some voters who — you know and we may get to the point where Trump says don’t answer the polls, which had a real impact on us,” Lake said.
“We have all changed our methodology a lot. We’re all looking at multiple turnout scenarios. We now all make sure that we don’t replace a Trump voter with the Biden voter etc, etc,” Lake continued. “But I’m always nervous about that and I’m always nervous about their surge in turnout. They’ve also done a lot more in terms of vote by mail. They’re now getting into vote by mail and Trump specifically wants vote by mail. That’s dangerous from two aspects — it’s dangerous because it may up their turnout.”
The incorrect polls, according to Lake, could “reduce a lot of ticket splitting,” explaining how mail in voting would effect women’s decision on who to vote for this November. “It’s also dangerous because it can reduce a lot of ticket splitting. Women when they can vote in the voting booth get to make up their own mind, with their own priorities. Husbands and wives sit down together to vote by mail and so she’s ready enthusiastically marking Hillary or Harris and her husband says, ‘What are you doing? We’re not Harris voters we’re voting for Trump’ and then she goes, ‘Oh enough I’m not fighting about this.’ So that worries me too,” Lake added.
“So, yes, I am concerned and I think hopefully you know the current polls — four points ahead nine points ahead among Independents …” Lake continued. “But yes I always worry that we should not underestimate the Trump’s [sic], as disgusted as we get they can get reinforced.”
