In a potentially troubling development for Democrats, a new Emerson College/The Hill poll has revealed concerning news from Wisconsin—one of the key swing states in the upcoming election. The latest figures are not promising for Vice President Kamala Harris. The poll shows former President Donald Trump slightly ahead with 50% of the vote, while Harris trails closely at 49%. Although a 1% margin may not appear significant, the trend is raising alarm bells among Democratic circles.
Before the Democratic National Convention (DNC), Harris was leading Trump by 1% in the same poll. This recent shift indicates a 2% drop for Harris, flipping the state in Trump’s favor. In a fiercely contested state like Wisconsin, even a minor change in the numbers can have significant consequences.
General Election Poll – Wisconsin
? Trump 50% (+1)
? Harris 49%Emerson College/The Hill
This poll was Harris +1 before the DNC. Essentially, Harris is a minus 2 in Wisconsin after the DNC.
Bad news for Harris.— David D. Chapman (@davidchapman141) August 29, 2024
The numbers are especially concerning given Emerson College’s polling history. In 2020, their final poll showed Joe Biden with an 8% lead, but the actual results revealed a much closer race, with the poll overstating Biden’s lead by 7.4%. If this latest poll follows a similar pattern, Democrats could face an unpleasant surprise on Election Day.
Today’s Emerson Poll has Trump +1% in WISCONSIN.
In 2020, the Emerson final poll had Biden +8%, an error on the Dem side of 7.4%
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) August 29, 2024
Meanwhile, Trump is focusing on the Midwest, with planned visits to Michigan and Wisconsin this Thursday. It’s also notable to recall that the Republican National Convention was held in Milwaukee, Wis., likely as a nod to what is viewed as a must-win former “blue wall” state that Donald Trump won in 2016 but then lost in 2020 to Joe Biden.
Earlier this week, Harris’ campaign got some more bad news from Wisconsin after the left-leaning state Supreme Court rejected a Democratic Party lawsuit to have Green Party candidate Jill Stein removed from the November ballot. The challenge, brought by David Strange of the Democratic National Committee, argued that Stein’s candidacy could divert votes from Harris, potentially benefiting former President Trump. However, the court issued an unsigned order dismissing the appeal without explanation, permitting Stein to remain in the race.
“It is ordered that the petition for leave to commence an original action is denied. We determine that the petitioner is not entitled to the relief he seeks; and, it is further ordered that all other pending motions are denied as moot,” the court stated. Stein announced her third presidential run in November 2023 via X, following her tenure as campaign manager for Cornel West, who later opted for an independent bid.
Stein’s campaign emphasizes anti-war policies, a Green New Deal, universal healthcare, and ending genocide. Her candidacy has raised concerns within the Democratic Party about potentially siphoning crucial left-wing support away from Harris in the general election as she did from then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016, when Donald Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win the state in years.
