The Trump campaign anticipates a significant boost from Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement in swing states, according to internal polling data. In a “confidential” memo circulated by Trump advisor Chris LaCivita, the campaign highlighted gains for former President Trump across key swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. “This is good news for President Trump and his campaign—plain and simple,” LaCivita remarked.
Data from Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio revealed that the endorsement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had a significant impact on Trump’s support. In Nevada, 66 percent of Kennedy voters indicated they would back Trump following the endorsement. This trend continued in North Carolina, where 58 percent of Kennedy supporters said they planned to vote for Trump, and 53 percent expressed the same intention in Arizona.
Trump is seeing his largest net gains among Kennedy voters in Nevada (50%), Wisconsin (30%), and Arizona (25%). In other key swing states, such as Pennsylvania and Georgia, Trump is gaining a net 13% among Kennedy supporters. The margin is smallest in Michigan, where Trump’s net gain is just 2%. “To put these numbers into perspective, the net vote gained in states like Arizona based on just a 2020 turnout model would be over 41,000 votes — nearly 4 times Biden’s winning margin or in Georgia the net gain would be over 19,000 votes nearly twice Biden’s margin,” the memo reads.
Kennedy ended his campaign on Friday before endorsing Trump. The two then appeared together at a rally in Glendale, Ariz., later that evening. “It’s with a sense of victory and not defeat, that I’m suspending my campaign activities,” Kennedy said during his speech, carried on social media. He highlighted his campaign’s achievements, including collecting over a million signatures and bringing critical issues such as chronic disease, free speech, and government corruption to the forefront of the national conversation.
Kennedy’s endorsement of Trump marks a critical juncture in the 2024 presidential race, as his influence is expected to sway many former supporters in his direction. “Thank you for a job well done,” Kennedy told his supporters. “These are the principal causes that persuaded me to leave the Democratic Party and run as an Independent. And now to throw my support to President Trump.”
“The Democrats were the party of government transparency and the champion of the environment. Our party was the bulwark against big money interests and corporate power. True to its name, it was the party of democracy. As you know, I left that party in October because it had departed so dramatically from the core values that I grew up with,” Kennedy said. “It had become the party of war, censorship, corruption, big pharma, big tech, and big money. By canceling the primary to conceal the cognitive decline of the sitting president.”
Political analysts indicate that Kennedy’s endorsement of Trump could dramatically shift the dynamics in battleground states where Harris had been gaining ground. Kennedy’s support is expected to help Trump consolidate a larger base, drawing in independents and disaffected Democrats. This development is a significant blow to the Harris campaign, which relied on these crucial states to form a winning coalition in the upcoming election.
