Robert F. Kennedy Jr., running as an independent in the 2024 presidential race, is on the brink of withdrawal, with indications pointing to a possible announcement in Arizona this Friday. Arizona, known for its significant independent voter base, may see Kennedy stepping down and potentially endorsing former President Donald Trump, who will also be in Phoenix that day.
Kennedy’s choice of Arizona for this announcement appears deliberate, aiming to influence the state’s notable independent electorate. The speculation grew when Kennedy’s running mate, Nicole Shanahan, hinted on Tuesday that the campaign is considering aligning with Trump. Such a move could significantly alter the dynamics of the race.
“There’s two options that we’re looking at,” Shanahan said earlier this week. The first option involves remaining in the race and preparing for a significant third-party challenge in 2028. This approach would sidestep the high costs linked to obtaining ballot access and would enable the party to concentrate resources on campaigning. “Or we walk away right now and join forces with Donald Trump,” Shanahan explained.
Pollster Rich Baris suggests that Trump could gain a substantial portion of Kennedy’s supporters if Kennedy withdraws. Initial surveys indicate that 40% of Kennedy’s backers might shift their support to Trump. This figure could rise to over 60% if Kennedy endorses Trump. Meanwhile, Vice President Harris might attract about a quarter of Kennedy’s base, with the remainder potentially choosing not to vote at all.
Trump is taking an initial 40% of RFK voters when asked who they would vote for if he wasn’t on the ballot.
Harris is taking about a quarter and the others consider not voting.
When endorsed by RFK, support for Trump increases to just over 6 in 10.
— Rich Baris The People’s Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) August 22, 2024
Sources close to Kennedy told ABC News on Wednesday that he’s expected to bow out of the presidential race by week’s end and endorse Trump. When pressed, Kennedy played coy, telling ABC, “I will not confirm or deny that.” He added: “We are not talking about any of that.” Sources also suggested that the decision is still pending and could very well change. One source noted that Kennedy has aimed to expedite the process of dropping out, partly to counteract any momentum gained from the DNC.
“I think it was a coronation, it’s not democracy. Nobody voted. Who chose Kamala? It wasn’t voters.” Kennedy told ABC News about the convention. “She [Kamala] went in four weeks from being the worst liability for the Democratic Party to the second coming of Christ without giving one interview, without showing up for a debate, without a single policy that anyone thinks isn’t ridiculous. It’s not democracy.”
Also, on Wednesday, Kennedy revealed his intention to give a major speech on Friday in Phoenix, coinciding with Trump’s scheduled rally in the same city. Kennedy, who left the Democratic primary race to run as an independent, will speak at 2 p.m. ET, focusing on what his team describes as “the present historical moment and our path forward.” The address will be live-streamed across multiple social media platforms.
In an NBC News interview on Wednesday, Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-OH), revealed that there’s been “a lot of communication back and forth” between Kennedy and their campaign. “I haven’t spoken to RFK personally, but I know there’s been a lot of communication back and forth between RFK, between the campaign, between this campaign,” Vance explained.
“Look, our argument to RFK, and I’ll make it right now, because, of course, he hasn’t dropped out yet, is, look: If you want a Democratic Party that protected American workers and stood for strong borders, maybe disagreed with Republicans on things like tax policy, that party doesn’t exist anymore,” he added. “I know the president’s been working hard for that, but it’s completely separate from whether RFK gets a Cabinet position,” Vance continued. “It’s about welcoming a lot of those Democrats who feel abandoned by the party of Kamala Harris.”
Disclaimer: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.