Horse traders betting on the November presidential election are shifting their predictions following the Democratic National Convention. According to online political betting markets, former President Donald Trump is gaining ground.
At Polymarket, where bettors place wagers on whether Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris will win, Trump now holds a 52% to 47% lead. This marks a notable reversal from pre-DNC figures, which had Harris leading Trump 52% to 48%. The shift represents a five-point gain for Trump and a four-point drop for Harris, reflecting a nine-point swing in the market’s assessment of this week’s Democratic event in Chicago. Over $681 million has been wagered on the platform.
POLYMARKET, 8/19 (PRE-DNC)
? Harris 52% (+4)
? Trump 48%POLYMARKET, NOW
? Trump 52% (+5)
? Harris 47%A nine-point swing in the betting markets towards Trump during the DNC. They aren’t liking what they see.
— Red Eagle Politics (@RedEaglePatriot) August 21, 2024
Critics have pointed out several issues at the Democratic National Convention, including riots, teleprompter malfunctions, and lengthy programming delays. These problems have been highlighted in contrast to the Republican National Convention held last month in Milwaukee, which ran smoothly and attracted millions of viewers. Harris, slated to speak on Thursday, has continued to avoid media interviews, leaving spokesman Michael Tyler to offer vague promises about when she might engage with the press. Following complaints from Biden’s advisors about the DNC’s schedule running into overtime—resulting in the president’s speech beginning around midnight—Tyler controversially attributed the delays to extended applause during the event.
After declining to debate Trump on Fox News, Harris briefly answered questions from reporters while exiting her campaign bus at a Pennsylvania event. When asked about her economic plan, which has been compared to policies from Venezuela and the Soviet Union, Harris discussed her proposal for price fixing. She plans to empower the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and state attorneys general to impose substantial fines on grocery chains and their suppliers if their prices are deemed excessively high.
She has also proposed a $25,000 payment for “first generation home buyers” and has proposed “forgiveness” of medical debt mainly for loyal Democratic Party voting blocs. “You unveiled your economic policies last week. Can you explain how you’re going to pay for those, and can you give me an example of what other policies you want to unveil next?” the reporter asked. Harris provided an obtuse answer before her aides swiftly moved her on.
The next chance for markets to evaluate Trump and Harris together will be the debate scheduled for September 10th on ABC News. Trump, who is suing network anchor George Stephanopoulos for defamation, has dropped his conflict-of-interest argument after trying to pressure Harris into a debate on Fox News, his preferred network. Observers will be keen to see if Harris can deliver effective one-liners and articulate her policy positions throughout the two-hour debate. Trump has criticized Harris’s role as the administration’s “border czar” and labeled her as “not very smart,” contrasting his own lengthy press conference with Harris’s perceived lack of transparency.
Disclaimer: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.