Democrats worry that the party’s smug overconfidence during Vice President Kamala Harris’s honeymoon period could undermine her ability to handle intense attacks as the November election approaches. Democratic strategists recognize that Harris, a far-left West Coast Democrat, will eventually need to address questions about her record and navigate any potential October surprises or opposition research aimed at derailing her campaign, and so far, nearly a month after President Biden endorsed her as his successor, she still hasn’t held a formal press conference.
“Every presidential campaign in modern history has had to go through an unanticipated scandal, crisis or world event, and at some point, that political law is going to happen to Kamala Harris’s campaign,” Fernand Amandi, a former President Obama strategist, told The Hill. “Anyone who is measuring the drapes at the White House needs a serious reality check,” he added.
Most swing state polls indicate that Harris is statistically tied with former President Donald Trump. This polling has buoyed Democrats, especially after Trump had previously led President Joe Biden by nearly double digits in the same surveys before he stepped down. “Democrats are rightfully elated with the trajectory of the Harris-Walz campaign,” Democrat strategist Tim Hogan told the outlet. “But anyone politically conscious over the last decade — especially Democrats — knows that terrain can shift and events beyond our control can quickly change the nature of elections.”
“So we come into this with a ton of well-earned anxiety that all the polls in the world can’t entirely dissipate,” Democrat strategist Christy Setzer said. “It all looks good, but trust us when say we take nothing for granted.”
Other Democrats have cautioned that not all polling data is favorable for the Harris campaign. Former Obama strategist Jim Messina, referencing undecided voter data, warned against overconfidence in what he described as an “incredibly close” election. “When you look at who the undecided voters are in this election, we’re down to like 5 percent,” he told Dana Perino on Fox News. “And the question is, are some of those voters going to get out and actually vote.”
As the newly selected Democrat candidate, Harris faces a unique set of challenges. A recent poll revealed that 70 percent of registered Democrats and independents who voted for Biden in 2020 are largely unaware of many of Harris’s controversial and radical positions. Undecided independent working-class voters are expected to play a crucial role in the 2024 election. Harris’s limited appeal in Midwestern states, due to her West Coast background, could be a disadvantage. In contrast, Trump is more popular than he was in 2020 and 2016, according to CNN analyst Harry Enten.
Enthusiasm among Democrats for voting for Harris has dropped by one point to 61 percent, compared to 62 percent enthusiasm for Biden in May, as noted by Enten. In contrast, enthusiasm among Republicans for voting for Trump has risen by two points from May (58 percent) to August (60 percent). Trump’s favorability rating in the RealClearPolitics average is less than one point below his highest approval rating, recorded in April, according to Breitbart. Similarly, his approval rating in the FiveThirtyEight average is also less than one point below his peak rating, achieved in February.
Meanwhile, Harris will have to defend her and Joe Biden’s policies at some point, and they’re not popular, according to polling. For example, polls consistently reveal strong criticism of the Biden-Harris administration’s border policy, highlighting two major issues: widespread opposition to illegal immigration and a strong desire for increased security and troop deployment at the southern border. Recent surveys underscore this sentiment, showing that Americans broadly disapprove of Vice President Kamala Harris’s role as “border czar.” A new Napolitan News Service poll found that 84% of registered voters view illegal immigration as detrimental to the United States, compared to just 12% who see it as beneficial, the Center Square reports.
The ratio of opposition to support for illegal immigration has “remained broadly unchanged for decades,” according to the news service. A significant majority of 71% of those polled expressed support for legal immigration, believing it benefits the country. In contrast, opponents of illegal immigration argue that it harms Americans. “That view has also remained stable for decades. Voters make a clear distinction between legal and illegal immigration,” said the news service.
Disclaimer: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.