Kari Lake may be on the verge of her first electoral victory this November as she embarks on her second statewide campaign in Arizona. Senate Republicans are optimistic that the former news host-turned-candidate will secure the win. A recent internal poll by Peak Insights shows Lake currently in a dead heat with Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego. Both candidates are competing for the seat currently held by Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), with each garnering 46% support and 8% of voters still undecided.
The poll also highlighted a close national race, with former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris. In the three-way matchup that included independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump garnered 44%, Harris earned 42%, and Kennedy attracted 11%, leaving 3% of voters undecided.
New ARIZONA poll for @NRSC (R)
Senate
? Ruben Gallego: 46%
? Kari Lake: 46%
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President
? Trump: 44%
? Harris: 42%
? RFK Jr: 11%
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Peak Insights | 7/31-8/1 | 800 LV | ±3%https://t.co/URkYpZMdun— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 15, 2024
Last month, Lake, who previously ran for governor in 2022 with President Trump’s endorsement, is now showing a potential lead in Arizona’s U.S. Senate race. According to an analysis by The Hill, Lake is ahead of her likely Democratic opponent, Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), by two percent. Initially, polls favored Gallego, but Lake has been consistently criticizing the surge of migrants at Arizona’s southern border, attributing it to Gallego’s support of President Biden’s immigration policies. The shift in the polls comes in a state that Trump won by 3.5% in 2016 and that Biden narrowly carried by 0.3% in 2020.
Factors like partisan lean and incumbency, which are typically advantageous, appear to be working against Gallego in the current Arizona Senate race climate. Arizona residents’ frustrations with migration issues and the high cost of living have overshadowed the usual benefits of congressional incumbency. Lake, who launched her campaign in February, has been trailing Gallego by about 5% consistently in early polls. However, recent trends have shown this gap narrowing significantly, with the latest poll conducted shortly after Biden’s widely criticized debate performance showing Lake and Gallego tied at 47% each.
Lake is navigating a complex political landscape, striving to balance her staunch MAGA affiliations while adjusting her rhetoric to appeal to the broader 2024 electorate. After her 2022 gubernatorial loss to Katie Hobbs, Lake pursued several legal challenges to the election results, all of which were ultimately dismissed. More recently, Lake has sparked controversy with her comments suggesting that Arizonans “strap on a Glock” for the upcoming elections, a statement that drew criticism from U.S. Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ), whose wife, former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, was severely wounded in a shooting incident in 2010.
Former Arizona GOP Gov. Doug Ducey has endorsed Donald Trump, signaling a notable shift despite their previous disagreements, and has also endorsed Lake. In a series of posts on X, Ducey stated, “I will be voting for Republicans up & down the ballot in November – and both Donald Trump and Kari Lake have my endorsement.” He emphasized that, despite any past differences, the stakes in this election are too high to do otherwise. Having a Republican in the White House, along with a GOP majority in both the House and Senate, is essential, he added.
Ducey pointed to concerns regarding inflation, border security, and foreign policy as the primary factors driving his support. Additionally, he underscored the critical significance of school choice, tax cuts, and safeguarding the Supreme Court as pivotal issues in this election. In a statement, Lake said, “Doug Ducey supports me because he knows it’s never been more important to unite all Arizonans and win big in November. Thank you, Governor!”
Disclaimer: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.