Leading Democrat Throws Cold Water On Harris Campaign

A leading Democratic consultant and operative has dampened a lot of hopes among members of his party who are overly confident about Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances against former President Donald Trump following President Joe Biden’s decision to drop his reelection bid. In an interview with CNN, David Axelrod, who served as an advisor to then-President Barack Obama, said there is a lot of “irrational exuberance” around Harris’ presidential bid and that the race is “Trump’s to lose.”

“And look, she has a lot of momentum. But if you do look at the polling, this is still a really tight race. This is going to be a hard fight for either side — tough based on the numbers we’re seeing right now,” host Jessica Dean said, setting up Axelrod for a response. “100 percent. There’s a lot of irrational exuberance on the Democratic side of the aisle right now because there was despair for some period of time about what November was going to look like,” he began.

“Now people feel like there’s a chance. But it is absolutely Trump’s race to lose right now. He is ahead and he is ahead in most of the battleground states. They are close, they can be won by either candidate. But there’s a lot to be determined in the next 90-whatever days — 96 or what it is left,” he continued. “So yes, I think it’s a wide-open race, but Trump has the advantage right now and nobody should — nobody should be, nobody should be — everybody should be sober about that on the Democratic side.”

As Harris prepares to formally accept the Democratic nomination later this month, a raft of bad economic news will likely temper some enthusiasm for her candidacy as one-half of the “Biden-Harris administration.” According to Friday reports, U.S. job growth slowed significantly in July, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to its highest level in nearly three years.

The Labor Department reported on Friday that employers added 114,000 jobs in July, falling well short of the 175,000 gain predicted by LSEG economists. The unemployment rate also unexpectedly rose to 4.3%, up from the anticipated 4.1%, marking its highest level since October 2021. “Temperatures might be hot around the country, but there’s no summer heatwave for the job market,” said Becky Frankiewicz, president of ManPowerGroup North America. “With across-the-board cooling, we have lost most of the gains we saw from the first quarter of the year.”

Fox Business added:

Friday’s report adds to mounting evidence that the economy is weakening in the face of ongoing inflation and high interest rates. Stock futures plunged as the report reignited fears of an impending recession, with Dow futures shedding more than 500 points.

That’s because the rise in unemployment triggered the so-called Sahm Rule, an indicator that is used to provide an early recession signal. The rule stipulates that a recession is likely when the three-month moving average of the jobless rate is at least a half-percentage point higher than the 12-month low.

Over the past three months, the unemployment rate has averaged 4.13%, up 0.63 percentage points from the 3.5% rate recorded in July 2023. The Sahm Rule, which has accurately predicted every recession since 1970, indicates growing economic concerns. “The latest snapshot of the labor market is consistent with a slowdown, not necessarily a recession,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. “However, early warning signs suggest further weakness.”