The mainstream media, Hollywood stars, academia, and the whole of the Democratic Party has fallen in line behind Vice President Kamala Harris after President Joe Biden dropped his reelection bid this month and essentially anointed her his successor. Polling data and other election indicators seemed to dramatically shift in her direction and away from former President Donald Trump as a “honeymoon” period took hold. But a new survey that has been accurate in the past has taken some of the polish off Harris’ shine.
According to a recent Harvard-Harris CAPS poll, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris 52% to 48% with leaners included, and 48% to 45% without leaners. While Harris has boosted Joe Biden’s numbers in the latter scenario, it hasn’t impacted the former.
“Even the unsure voters are breaking toward Trump, at least somewhat. The more worrisome data for Democrats are in the charts below, however. Trump holds Republicans to the ticket better than Harris holds her own party in both formulations. In fact, her 87% without leaners should be a red flag for the DNC, suggesting strongly that the party is not as sold on The Anointing as the media claims, even with the full-court press on Kamalot!” Hot Air noted on Wednesday, citing the poll.
“Take a look at the indie numbers, too. Trump leads by six points without leaners — and six points with leaners. One has to wonder whether the sample tilts a bit toward the Dems based on those results plus the party loyalty numbers above. If so, Trump’s still scoring an outright majority over Harris, who’s attractiveness as a candidate is at its zenith before she’s forced to open her mouth about policy,” the outlet continued.
In the following slide, we observe additional demographic challenges for Harris and the Democrats. Trump is ahead by 12 points among men and is only trailing by 4 points among women (44% to 48%). Remarkably, Trump is securing 25% of the Black vote and 44% of the Hispanic vote, which is somewhat lower than in other polls. Before we delve into the issues, there’s another concerning result for Democrats: they currently have only a +3 lead in the generic congressional ballot without leaners. Typically, anything less than a +5 in this metric suggests potential losses in both the House and Senate. When leaners are included, the GOP actually leads by +4.
What might be driving this Trump Bump? The current issue set seems to favor Republicans. In an open-ended survey, the top three concerns for respondents are inflation (37%), immigration (33%), and the economy and jobs (27%). When asked to identify the single most impactful issue, 45% chose inflation, and 14% selected immigration. Harris’ focus on abortion is tied for third place with crime at 10%. Except perhaps for jobs, where the data has been unexpectedly positive this year, Harris is on the defensive regarding the issues most important to voters this cycle—and she isn’t known for her defensive skills.
Another trend to monitor is favorability. In this poll, both Harris and Trump have neutralized their unfavorable ratings, with each at 47% and 48%, respectively, resulting in no net advantage in personal approval. However, the GOP has a slight edge over the Democrats in party favorability (47% to 45%), which likely affects both presidential and congressional polling. Crucially, voters are reassessing Trump’s presidency in light of the subsequent administration.
Disclaimer: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.