A Democratic strategist warned on Monday that Vice President Kamala Harris might be losing support in the Rust Belt despite narrowing the polling gap with former President Donald Trump. This won’t bode well for her chances to defeat Trump if she can’t take the ‘blue wall’ states.
On Tuesday, Harris reportedly secured the necessary delegate support to claim the Democratic nomination, just two days after President Joe Biden announced he would not seek the nomination and endorsed her as his replacement for the 2024 presidential election against former Trump. Julian Epstein, a former chief counsel for the House Judiciary Committee, noted on “Mornings with Maria” that working-class voters were shifting more toward Trump and Republicans after voting solidly Democratic for decades.
“You really have to do an average of the polls,” Epstein explained to co-host Cheryl Casone. “If you do an average of the polls, Donald Trump is still ahead by about one to two points in the national election and still ahead in most battleground states. That’s according to five of the seven most recent polls. So, what we’ve seen is that the race has returned to the pre-debate norm where it has been stuck all year.”
In a national head-to-head matchup, Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 1.7%, according to the Real Clear Polling average from July 5 to 25. Trump’s lead increases to 1.8% when Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein and independent presidential candidates Cornel West and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are included in the surveys. In comparison, Trump had a 3.1% lead over President Joe Biden in a national head-to-head matchup before Biden ended his reelection bid, according to the RealClearPolling average. This lead grew to 4.2% when Stein, West, and Kennedy were added.
“The one change that you are seeing, you know you really have to look at the crosstabs in the polls as well, and crosstabs is a fancy way for your viewers of saying you look at the demographic breakdown of what’s in the polls,” Epstein continued. “The significant change that we’re seeing is that Kamala Harris seems to be attracting more young voters that were leaving the Democratic Party and more black voters that were also leaving the Democratic Party under Biden and that’s good for her. On the other hand, older voters and working-class voters seem to be moving towards Trump, that’s bad news for her.”
“The reason that’s bad news for her is because most voters in the Midwest states, the rustbelt swings, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are older and working-class,” Epstein said. “So, essentially what has happened, as you return to the pre-debate norm, but you’ve traded a California voter for a Pennsylvania voter, which is not so good for Harris.”