A noted global financial forecaster with a penchant for accuracy has issued a stunning prediction of sorts — a ‘red wave’ is coming in November. The latest political events in the United States, especially President Joe Biden’s unexpectedly weak debate performance and the effort to assassinate former President Donald Trump on Saturday, strongly suggest a strong showing by the Republican Party in the November elections of the US, as per Gavekal Research.
Sixteen weeks is a long time in politics, and much can change before November. However, the 2018 stabbing of Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro demonstrated that “assassination attempts swing undecided voters towards the victim in large numbers,” Gavekal wrote in an investor note posted on the group’s website.
The forecaster added:
In the US, more than any other democracy, fundraising plays a crucial role. Following Trump’s conviction on May 31 in a New York court, his campaign saw a surge in donations. After the attempted assassination on Saturday, it is expected that contributions to Trump’s campaign will once again flood in, the macro research firm said in the report.
This influx of support is likely to grow, as the assassination attempt has made it more socially acceptable to support Trump. In 2016, many people were hesitant to openly endorse him. This time, high-profile business figures like Elon Musk and Bill Ackman have publicly pledged their support, and the general public is more openly showing their allegiance.
Meanwhile, the Democratic Party is struggling with internal conflicts and concerns about Joe Biden’s ability to handle a rigorous four-month campaign, leading to a decline in donations. With Hollywood stars increasingly withdrawing their support, backing Biden “has clearly lost its cachet,” Gavekal economists said.
“The prevailing mood has changed, and the stage seems set for a sizable red wave come November’s vote,” they added. From a positive perspective for risk assets, this indicates an increase in deregulation, a move towards a less diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) focus, a rise in hiring decisions based on merit, and a decrease in environmental limitations—all elements that are supported by equity markets. Nonetheless, it’s unclear whether these changes will be enough to propel another rise in broad market indexes, Gavekal noted.
The alarm is sounding at the Biden-Harris headquarters as a new poll of swing states and the nation shows former President Donald Trump extending his lead over President Joe Biden, 109 days before the election.
Emerson College on Thursday announced the results of a poll that revealed President Trump leading the Democrat incumbent by a margin of 44% to 38% on the national stage, marking the largest lead he has achieved all year since the first poll was conducted just days after he narrowly escaped assassination.
The initial surge of sympathy for Trump seems to have spurred a significant shift in greater support, despite ongoing concerns about President Biden’s age dominating headlines. The impact of these results was particularly striking in eight swing states pivotal to deciding the outcome of the November election.
In Arizona, a state narrowly won by Biden in the last election, Trump now enjoys a 10% lead. Similarly, Georgia, which narrowly favored Biden and subsequently elected two Democratic U.S. Senators after Trump’s loss, now boasts a 5% advantage for Trump. Meanwhile, in Michigan, which is often considered one of the bluest midwestern states, besides Illinois, Trump leads Biden by 43% to 40%. Across all eight battlegrounds, leads by the GOP nominee either remained the same or expanded:
- Arizona: Trump 46%, Biden 36%, other candidates 8.2%
- Georgia: Trump 44%, Biden 39%, other candidates 9.3%
- Michigan: Trump 43%, Biden 40%, other candidates 8.3%
- Nevada: Trump 43%, Biden 40%, other candidates 9.2%
- North Carolina: Trump 47%, Biden 38%, other candidates 8.7%
- Pennsylvania: Trump 46%, Biden 40%, other candidates 6.3%
- Wisconsin: Trump 46%, Biden 43%, other candidates 6.5%
- National: Trump 44%, Biden 38%, other candidates 8.4 %
Trump also has a slight lead over Biden in Virginia, which Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and Biden won in 2020. Trump’s lead there is currently about 2 percent, but he’s tied with Biden when undecided voters are asked to give their preference.
Disclaimer: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.