Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in the 25 counties that have accurately predicted the outcomes of the last four elections, as revealed in a new poll exclusively obtained by The Daily Wire. According to the poll conducted by the polling firm Cygnal, Trump leads Biden by 2 points in a head-to-head comparison across the 25 “bellwether” counties. However, in polls that include third-party candidates, Trump enjoyed a 3-point lead over Biden.
“Since 2008, only 25 counties out of 3,142 across the United States have voted for Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Republican Donald Trump in 2016, and flipped back to Democrat, voting for Joe Biden in 2020,” a poll analysis provided by Cygnal explains. “We’re talking about a really, really small group of people that are really, really influential because they got it right for all those elections,” President and Founder of Cygnal Brent Buchanan told the outlet.
The poll was conducted following the June 27th presidential debate, and now comes just days after Trump narrowly survived an assassination attempt and secured the Republican nomination. Most likely voters in the critical bellwether counties tuned into the debate between the two presidential candidates, overwhelmingly concluding that Trump emerged victorious.
“The fallout for Biden from the June 27th debate cannot be understated. 8-in-10 likely voters in the nation’s Bellwether Counties say they watched the debate, and of those, 63% say Trump won the debate, 17% Biden,” the poll states, adding that another 20 percent of respondents say that they are undecided on who won.
Voters in the bellwether counties prioritize the economy, followed by illegal immigration and threats to democracy. Independents in these areas place a higher emphasis on the latter two issues, showcasing a notable divergence from national sentiment. Meanwhile, among the undecided independents, the economy and illegal immigration stand out as the most critical topics, indicative of potential support for Trump.
The Daily Wire adds:
The poll notes that these voters are slightly less pessimistic about the trajectory of the nation, but still widely agree that we are heading in the wrong direction. According to the Cygnal poll, “27% say the U.S. is headed in the right direction, 68% say we’re off on the wrong track.”
Biden could also suffer from a lack of enthusiasm among bellwether county voters who supported him in 2020. Only 73% have committed to supporting the president in the upcoming election. Another 13% say that they have not committed to voting for the Democratic incumbent again.
Buchanan also addressed the state of race more broadly, telling The Daily Wire that “if Joe Biden loses any one of the Rust Belt states, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, there’s, there’s almost no path for him” to win the election.