MSNBC national political correspondent Steve Kornacki discussed on “Katy Tur Reports” how, contrary to some expectations, President Joe Biden is not leading former President Donald Trump in almost any poll following their recent presidential debate.
The situation has sparked considerable concern within the Democratic Party regarding Biden’s campaign strategy moving forward. The debate performance has intensified discussions about possibly replacing him with a candidate who might stand a better chance against Trump. According to Kornacki, while some Democrats are deeply worried by the polling data, others find some comfort in noting that Biden is not significantly trailing Trump, even in the aftermath of the debate.
“These eight polls have all been conducted entirely after the debate and these are the results from those polls … I think you do see some clear patterns here,” Kornacki said. “First of all, this one is obvious. Every poll since the debate has either had Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden or a tie in one case. And most of these polls have shown some kind of a movement toward Trump and away from Biden.
“Not all of them, but you see a pretty clear pattern. So I think what you see here is a Trump lead here, if you average these all together, his lead on average … is 3.4 points in the post-debate polling. And movement from the previous polls, about two points. About a point and a half, two points of movement toward Trump since the debate,” the analyst continued.
“It becomes a question for Democrats, how do you interpret that? Some Democrats might make the case that … ‘look, this is still close. The bottom hasn’t fallen out. It’s not like Biden’s lost 10 points, 20 points. Something clear, something definitive.’ Democrats can say, ‘hey, this is something that can be recovered from.’ On the flip side, other Democrats … would look at this and say, ‘the bottom line, Joe Biden doesn’t lead in a single one of these polls,” he added.
“Joe Biden’s lost ground in most of these polls. And we live in a world where the margins are very thin in elections one way or the other and a shift of a couple points may seem small but it can be decisive. So some Democrats can look at these with just alarm and others could look at them and say it hasn’t changed that much. It’s a matter of interpretation,” said Kornacki.
WATCH:
‘Biden Doesn’t Lead In A Single One’: MSNBC Data Guru Breaks Down Trump Surge In Post-Debate Polls pic.twitter.com/zzhh8ibJR6
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) July 9, 2024
CNN political director David Chalian highlighted on Monday that Biden’s re-election campaign might face increasing challenges as states traditionally leaning Democratic, such as Minnesota, Virginia, and New Mexico, are becoming more competitive. The shift suggests a more complex electoral landscape for Biden in the upcoming race than in 2020.
“If that happens, that means more resources that Biden has to spend in a greater number of states than he’s currently spending. If the map expands against him, that’s not a position of strength heading into this fall campaign,” Chalian said.