RealClearPolitics co-founder Tom Bevan discussed on the outlet’s radio show earlier this week recent polling shifts monitored by his organization that are bad news for President Joe Biden and his Democratic Party as they attempt to hold onto the White House and Senate while trying to win back control of the House in the fall elections.

“The Democrats had taken a lead in the RCP Generic Congressional Ballot around the end of April and held over a 1-point lead, which is higher than they’ve had this entire cycle, by the way. That stayed basically through the month of May. But Republicans have recently had a good round of polls and moved ahead in our average to be up 1.3 points,” Bevan explained.

“This is important for a couple of reasons. One, it gives you a blunt instrument for looking at how the public views these two parties. The question pollsters ask is, ‘If the election were held today, would you vote for the Republican or the Democrat for congressional office?’ And there are no names attached. So it just gives you a sense of if people are feeling better about one party or the other,” he continued.

“The other reason this is important is that historically, Republicans do better than they poll on this question. So, on Election Day, they typically overperform whatever this number is. So the fact that they’re leading, or ahead at this point, is a pretty positive sign for the Republican Party,” he said. “This is one of those things that if you go back and look, historically, Democrats would need to be ahead in this number to have a good chance at winning back the House, winning the Senate, and potentially winning the presidency. So it’s just another tool we use to monitor things, and Republicans have seen an uptick in just the last month.”

Several issues are dogging Biden, most notably the economy. Nearly half of Americans have reported that the recent surge in inflation is making it difficult to meet their financial needs, according to a new poll. On Wednesday, Monmouth University released a poll indicating that 46% of Americans are “currently struggling to remain where they are financially.” This is the highest percentage recorded by the pollster since President Joe Biden took office, and it is significantly higher than during his predecessor’s term.

“In polls conducted between 2022 and 2023, this number ranged between 37% and 44%,” Monmouth said in its report. “In prior polls from 2017 to 2021, this sentiment was much lower at 20% to 29%.” Prices have increased by about 20% since Biden took office, representing a significant hike across all types of goods and services. However, inflation is now increasing at a much slower rate than the rapid pace seen earlier in Biden’s term.

“Even with a declining inflation rate, prices continue to be much higher than they were four years ago,” Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, noted in the report. “That’s the metric that has really mattered to many Americans over the past two years. Economic concerns may not be the top motivating factor for all voters but it defines the contours of this year’s election.”

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