A well-known liberal publication’s surprising prediction for the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election is that President Donald Trump will win by a landslide over Democratic opponent Joe Biden.
The Economist’s model for the US presidential election is developed with a team of scholars at Columbia University. It combines national and state-level polls with fundamental data about the state of the economy, historical voting patterns, and the demographics of each state to predict the likelihood of various outcomes of the race. The model runs over 10,000 simulations of the election, considering potential shifts in voter preference and economic trends to generate its predictions. As of the latest update, the model gives President Trump a two-thirds chance of securing the electoral college victory required to retain his position in the White House.
The model also factors in demographic traits and voting intentions, using data from YouGov to construct a hypothetical voter and estimate their vote based on specific attributes. It takes into account key swing states, such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, which are likely to prove decisive in the election. This comprehensive approach enables a detailed analysis of how different groups of voters might influence the election outcome, making The Economist’s model a dynamic and thorough predictor of the US election outcome.
Andrew Gelman of Columbia University leads the team of political scientists who developed the model, ensuring a robust and scholarly approach to the forecast. It’s important to note that The Economist’s model is updated daily to reflect changes in polls and economic data, making it a dynamic and continually evolving predictor of the US election outcome.
With the highly anticipated presidential debate scheduled for June 27 in Atlanta, both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will have a 90-minute platform to engage in a pivotal event in this year’s campaign schedule. This marks their first face-to-face meeting since the October 2020 debate. Each candidate will be allotted a two-minute slot to respond to questions, followed by a one-minute period for rebuttal and reply.
The candidates will see red lights indicating they have five seconds remaining, which will flash solid red when the time is up. Additionally, each candidate’s microphone will be silenced when it is the other’s turn to speak, according to The New York Times. Trump and Biden have a clear dislike for one another. The former leader has described the latter as the worst in the history of the United States. During their initial meeting four years back, Trump dominated the conversation. In response, Biden reprimanded him, asking, “Will you keep quiet?”
