Longtime Republican pollster Frank Luntz predicted that former President Donald Trump could secure nearly a third of the Black vote in his rematch with President Biden in November. Although Black voters have historically supported Democrats by wide margins, the Biden campaign is grappling with months of troubling polling data regarding this key demographic’s preferences for 2024.

In 2020, NBC’s exit polls found that 87 percent of Black voters supported Joe Biden. However, an April survey showed Biden leading Trump by a narrower margin of 71% to 13%, a significant decline from his 2020 performance. Additionally, Black voter enthusiasm seems to have waned, with only 59% expressing significant interest in the 2024 election, compared to 74% who felt the same four years ago at a similar point in the race.

During an appearance on CNN, Luntz referred to polling trends and personal anecdotes before making a prediction that, if true, could have significant implications for the race.

“But specifically with black voters, it’s not all black voters, it’s younger black voters and particularly younger black men,” Luntz said. “I discovered this when I got off a plane at JFK, when two baggage handlers came over to me to tell me that I don’t get it, that they’re going to vote for Donald Trump because they think they are being victimized the same way that he is.”

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“In some of these votes that have left Joe Biden over the last four years, it’s because of Biden’s weakness. In this case, young black men see in Donald Trump, the same kind of oppression, the same kind of persecution, the idea that Trump is a victim and they feel victimized by the system,” Luntz continued.

“And so they’re endorsing Trump because of the fight that he’s having, and I actually think it’s possible that among black voters, male black voters under age 40, that even a third of them could end up with Trump in the fall,” he added.


The Biden campaign is acutely aware of the president’s declining appeal among Black voters and has recently launched a series of events aimed at mobilizing this demographic. A key component of their strategy is to portray Trump and his supporters as “insidious” racists who obstruct “equality and inclusion,” a depiction that couldn’t be further from reality considering that it is the Democratic Party that remains hyper-focused on skin color.

Disclaimer: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.