President Joe Biden is facing a new issue in polling data: an increasing number of Americans now reject the possibility of voting for him. According to a May poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College, among likely voters in six key swing states, 51% say there is “not really any chance” they would vote for Biden, compared to 46% who say the same about former President Donald Trump.
The trend of more voters pledging never to vote for Biden than Trump is evident in multiple surveys. According to The Washington Post, three polls conducted between November 2023 and April all found a higher number of never-Biden voters compared to never-Trump voters.
Per the Post, the American voter’s refusal to even consider voting for Biden marks a reversal from the 2020 election, when voters consistently reported they would never vote for Trump at higher rates than for Biden. Both candidates have received a significant number of protest votes, even though they were running in primaries that were essentially uncontested.
According to CNN, alternative candidates to Biden have garnered considerable support in several Democratic primaries, including those in the pivotal swing states of Nevada, Michigan, and North Carolina. Concurrently, Nikki Haley has maintained double-digit support in Republican presidential primaries, despite having withdrawn from the race months ago. This phenomenon underscores the evolving dynamics within both parties, where voter preferences appear increasingly fluid and reflective of broader dissatisfaction with the leading candidates.
With the election just four months away, polling indicates grim prospects for President Biden’s reelection. As of May 17, Biden’s approval rating stood at only 38.7%, making him less popular at this stage in his presidency than any president since Harry Truman, according to FiveThirtyEight’s running average of polls. Additionally, Trump has consistently polled ahead of Biden in the critical battleground states that are likely to determine the election outcome.
The New York Times poll surveyed 4,097 registered voters across Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points for likely voters.