President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign got some more bad news in the form of another survey that shows him losing out to former President Donald Trump in the most important battleground states.
Recent polls reveal that Trump is leading over Biden in five pivotal battleground states. The president’s Democratic coalition is under threat due to a desire for change, discontent over the economy, and the Gaza war among young, Black, and Hispanic voters, The New York Times reports.
“The surveys by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer found that Mr. Trump was ahead among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup against Mr. Biden in five of six key states: Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden led among registered voters in only one battleground state, Wisconsin,” pollster Nate Cohn wrote for the Times.
The contest tightens among likely voters. Trump also led in five states, but Biden pulled ahead in Michigan and was closely trailing in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Although Biden swept all six of these states in 2020, securing wins in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin would suffice for his re-election, assuming he maintains his victories in all other locations from four years earlier, The Times reported.
The outcome was similar in a hypothetical matchup featuring minor-party candidates and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who garnered an average of 10 percent of the vote across the six states. Kennedy’s support appeared to draw approximately equally from both major-party candidates, the outlet reported, citing the surveys.
The survey results have remained largely consistent with the last series of Times/Siena polls in battleground states from November, despite several significant events. Since then, the stock market has risen by 25 percent, Trump’s criminal trial in Manhattan has commenced, and the Biden campaign has spent tens of millions of dollars on advertisements across these key states.
“The polls offer little indication that any of these developments have helped Mr. Biden, hurt Mr. Trump or quelled the electorate’s discontent,” Cohn wrote. “Instead, the surveys show that the cost of living, immigration, Israel’s war in Gaza and a desire for change continue to be a drag on the president’s standing. While Mr. Biden benefited from a burst of momentum in the wake of his State of the Union address in March, he continues to trail in the average of national and battleground state polls.”
The survey results show broad discontent with the nation’s current conditions and substantial skepticism regarding Mr. Biden’s capability to significantly enhance American life. While a majority of voters still yearn for the “return to normalcy” Biden pledged during his previous campaign, those in battleground states are especially restless, anxious, and eager for change. Nearly 70 percent of voters believe that the country’s political and economic systems require major reforms, or perhaps a complete overhaul.
“Only a sliver of Mr. Biden’s supporters — just 13 percent — believe that the president would bring major changes in his second term, while even many of those who dislike Mr. Trump grudgingly acknowledge that he would shake up an unsatisfying status quo,” Cohn noted.
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