A number of Democratic analysts have pushed back in recent weeks on Republican claims they are in good shape to sweep back into power by retaking Congress during next month’s midterm elections.
But more anecdotal evidence continues to emerge that would indicate the party in the White House is set to lose big, which is historically the case anyway.
The GOP is in a position to win a congressional race in the blue enclave of Rhode Island for the first time since 1992, indicating that there may be a larger red wave than many analysts have predicted.
According to a poll conducted by 12News political analyst Joe Fleming, the GOP candidate in the race has support from 24 percent of Democrats in the district, or around 1-in-4.
“The balance of Congress is at stake. They don’t know what is going to happen nationally, we think the Republicans are going to control Congress, but who knows? This could be a crucial seat in the end,” he said.
“If I’m Seth Magaziner looking at these numbers, I’m going to say, well, I can do things over the next four weeks to get Democratic voters to come back home to me. It’s still relatively close. Anything could happen,” he added.
The poll shows [GOP nominee Allan] Fung’s lead is built in part on his outsized strength with Democrats, 24% of whom are backing him.
“If he can hold onto that he’s going to be in a decent position, because normally Republicans don’t get a quarter of the Democratic vote,” Fleming said.
By contrast, Magaziner is only supported by 63% of Democrats in the poll, and he is trailing Fung among independents 47% to 36%.
Yet those numbers may also present an opportunity for Magaziner’s campaign, Fleming said.
…The survey finds that the rising cost of living is by far the single best issue in this year’s election for the largest bloc of 2nd District voters, named by 42% of poll respondents.
Fung and the Republicans have focused their messaging heavily on economic issues.
According to the survey, Fung is leading Magaziner 46-40 percent in one survey.