First things first: If you’re a Republican and a supporter of President Trump, regardless of what is going on in the country right now, if you plan on sitting out the midterm elections, you’re handing Democrats more power. That’s just true. Sitting out isn’t an option; we either keep the GOP majority or we hand it to the most radical, left-wing socialist band of Democrats we’ve ever had — and Trump’s final two years in office will be a complete wash: Investigations, criminal referrals, and yes, impeachments.
Which leads me to this: The polling this cycle has been garbage, and that’s not a complaint invented for the occasion. The industry has been degrading since roughly 2012, and anyone willing to write a check can find a firm willing to produce a number that flatters whatever he already believes. There are a hundred ways to skin an electoral cat, and the same is true of a survey: pick your screen, pick your weighting, and the result arrives pre-seasoned to taste.
Exhibit A remains Ann Selzer. Weeks before Election Day 2024, she published a poll showing Kamala Harris up three in Iowa. Everybody with functioning instincts knew on sight that it was nonsense. Trump carried the state comfortably, which means Selzer missed by north of twenty points — not a bad night, a catastrophic one, from a pollster the press had spent years treating as oracular. And in the meantime it did exactly what such numbers do: it sent Democrats into a brief, delirious celebration of something that never existed.
So is the Republican brand actually toxic? The honest answer is that Trump’s numbers and the party’s numbers could both stand improvement. What there isn’t, anywhere in the data, is an exodus. Trump has never been stronger with the Republican base than he is right now. MAGA voters are motivated and intend to show up next month. Meanwhile the suppression polls keep landing, one after another, and I keep waiting for something grounded to break through. It hasn’t.
So mute them. Republicans should stop doom-scrolling crosstabs, stop whining, and go run their campaigns. Knock the doors. Make the calls. Fight.
And note who is pouring cold water on the blue tsunami talk: CNN’s own Harry Enten. His reason is the single most durable indicator on the board — voter registration. In several of the battleground states that decided 2024, Republican registration has expanded again this year. Democratic registration has not:
Should note the GOP is in its best position on party registration (i.e. not polls) going into a midterm in 20+ years.
In total, the Dems have not gained ground since 2024 in key swing states (AZ, NV, NC, or PA).
The GOP has gained big ground since Trump’s 1st midterm in all 4. https://t.co/KXK7zc5dFY
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 7, 2026
Analyst Larry O’Connor spoke at length about how much more important voter registrations are than the garbage polling we’ve seen:
Democrats are LOSING the voter registration war in every key battleground.
As political pros will tell you, these numbers are much more important than public polls. pic.twitter.com/6d3dmg1hIp
— L A R R Y (@LarryOConnor) October 7, 2026
And:
Let’s keep going, folks. Ignore the freaking polling. Let’s work and fight and vote.
