Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is predicting a sweeping Republican victory in the 2026 midterm elections, calling the potential outcome one of the most dramatic in modern American political history. Gingrich made the forecast during an appearance on Sean Hannity’s program, drawing on historical parallels and his own record of defying pre-election polls.
Gingrich was direct about his skepticism of current polling, pointing to recent races where surveys badly missed the final result. He cited Abdul El-Sayed, who polls showed leading by 20 points before winning by just one, and Wisconsin’s Francesca Hong, who held a 20-to-30-point polling advantage before losing by 3,000 votes.
Gingrich’s Case Against Trusting the Polls
“I’m not a big fan of polling, especially in this election cycle,” Gingrich said. “I don’t trust it. And I think polling can deflate people’s motivation to vote and maybe inspire another group of people to vote. It can be manipulated.”
He recalled a conversation with Megyn Kelly two weeks before the 2016 election, when she told him polls showed Hillary Clinton carrying Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Gingrich said he pushed back on every state she named. “This isn’t an argument about reality,” he told her at the time. “If you’re correct in your world, Hillary’s going to be president. If I’m correct in my world, Trump’s going to be president.” Trump went on to win all of those states. You can follow Gingrich’s 2026 midterm prediction for further context on his broader argument.
Talarico, Texas, and the Left’s Messaging Problem
Gingrich spent considerable time dissecting what he described as a recurring pattern in Texas, where Democratic candidates appear moderate early in a race before losing support as their positions become clearer. He singled out Texas candidate Talarico as a current example, saying he “lives on an alternative planet.”
“He said that he thought Jesus was non-binary,” Gingrich said. “All those years I said, ‘Our Father who art in heaven.’ I don’t understand non-binary in the sense he’s using it. I don’t actually know what the hell he’s talking about.” Gingrich also noted that Talarico’s pastor reportedly told congregants he was praying Trump would not survive an assassination attempt, calling it “a level of hatred that’s pretty scary.
A Prediction That Could Rival Jefferson’s Political Revolution
Gingrich ultimately offered a sweeping forecast for November, framing the election as one with stakes far beyond a typical midterm. “I’ll go out on a limb and say, I think the odds are much better than even that by Election Day, we will win one of the most shocking off-year elections in American history,” he said, “an election which could potentially rival Thomas Jefferson, who created the Democratic-Republican Party and literally over a 12-year period, annihilated the Federalist Party.”
Gingrich argued that if Republican candidates consistently deliver a unified message, their themes will cut through media bias and land with voters. He framed the election as a clear choice, warning that a Democratic wave would bring policies including open borders, restrictions on energy development, and a range of progressive social positions he argued most Americans reject.
