The battle for a must-win Democratic Senate seat has tightened, with the Cook Political Report moving the contest from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss Up” on Tuesday. The ratings change puts the race between Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and former Republican Sen. John E. Sununu in New Hampshire among the most competitive Senate contests of the 2026 midterm cycle.
Pappas and Sununu secured their parties’ nominations in the Sept. 8 primaries and are competing to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. Pappas has represented New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District since 2019, while Sununu previously served three terms in the House and one term in the Senate.
Despite headwinds against Republicans, there is one Senate race that some in both parties privately concede may be a sleeper offensive opening for the GOP: New Hampshire.
We move this contest from Lean D -> Toss Up.
Read @JessicaTaylor's analysis.https://t.co/9PuF8Ansqi
— Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical) September 15, 2026
Recent polling has shown a competitive race. A University of New Hampshire survey conducted in August found Sununu ahead of Pappas 45% to 43%, while a Saint Anselm College survey around the same period showed Pappas leading 48% to 41%. A more recent co/efficient poll conducted Sept. 14 found the candidates tied at 46% among likely voters. Sununu also benefits from a family name that has been prominent in New Hampshire politics for decades.
His father, John H. Sununu, served as governor before becoming White House chief of staff under President George H.W. Bush, while his brother, Chris Sununu, served four terms as New Hampshire governor. John E. Sununu himself represented the state in the Senate from 2003 until 2009.
New Hampshire has also demonstrated a history of ticket splitting and close statewide contests. Democrats have won every U.S. Senate race in the state since 2010, although some victories have been extremely narrow. Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan, for example, won her first Senate race in 2016 by roughly 1,000 votes.
Cook’s change comes less than two months before the Nov. 3 election and adds New Hampshire to a group of Senate races the publication currently places in its Toss Up category. With control of the Senate at stake, both parties are expected to devote significant attention and resources to the Granite State during the final stretch of the campaign.
