Could a historically blue state elect a Republican governor this year? It may just happen.
Oregon’s race for governor is showing signs of becoming unexpectedly competitive, with Republican Christine Drazan running closely with Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek in one of the latest publicly released surveys.
The contest is a rematch of the 2022 gubernatorial election, when Kotek narrowly defeated Drazan in a three-way race to extend Democrats’ decades-long hold on the governor’s office.
A poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies found Drazan receiving 48% support compared with 44% for Kotek.
The four-point difference was equal to the survey’s margin of error, meaning the poll did not establish a statistically significant lead for either candidate. Public Opinion Strategies surveyed 600 registered Oregon voters by telephone from June 22 through June 24. The poll was commissioned by Drazan’s campaign.
Still, the numbers attracted attention because Oregon has not elected a Republican governor in more than four decades.
The same survey found substantial dissatisfaction with conditions in the state. Fifty-nine percent of respondents said Oregon was headed in the wrong direction, compared with 38% who believed the state was moving in the right direction.
Kotek’s job approval was also underwater in the survey, with 38% approving of her performance and 57% disapproving.
Drazan performed particularly strongly outside the Portland area.
The poll found her ahead 49% to 45% in the Eugene media market, 56% to 29% around Medford and 54% to 40% in smaller media markets around the state.
The Portland media market was essentially tied, with Kotek receiving 46% and Drazan 45%.
There has been relatively little public polling of the race, making it difficult to draw firm conclusions from any individual survey.
An earlier May poll conducted by Hoffman Research Group found Kotek and Drazan tied at 45% each among likely voters. That survey included 603 likely general-election voters and carried a four-point margin of error.
The limited polling nevertheless suggests the rematch could be more competitive than Oregon’s recent political history might indicate.
Democrats have won every Oregon gubernatorial election since Republican Vic Atiyeh won reelection in 1982.
Drazan came relatively close to breaking that streak four years ago.
Official results from the Oregon secretary of state show Kotek receiving 917,074 votes, or roughly 47% of the vote, in 2022. Drazan finished with 850,347 votes, approximately 43.6%.
Unaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson received more than 168,000 votes, accounting for approximately 8.6% of the total.
The absence of a major independent candidate makes the 2026 race structurally different.
Drazan won the Republican nomination in May after defeating a crowded GOP field that included state Rep. Ed Diehl and former Portland Trail Blazers player Chris Dudley. Kotek easily won the Democratic nomination and is seeking a second term.
The two candidates also have a long political history.
Before becoming governor, Kotek served as speaker of the Oregon House, while Drazan served as House Republican leader. The two repeatedly clashed over policy and legislative tactics, including a Republican walkout that helped derail a Democratic cap-and-trade proposal.
Their 2026 campaigns are again offering sharply different assessments of Oregon’s direction.
Drazan has centered much of her campaign on affordability, housing, homelessness, education and government accountability.
Her recently released economic plan calls for reviewing regulations and fees that she says increase the cost of housing, energy, transportation, health care and doing business in Oregon. She has also promised to oppose new tax increases and place greater emphasis on measuring outcomes from state homelessness programs.
