The path to a political comeback is growing increasingly uncertain for former Vice President Kamala Harris, as new polling shows voter enthusiasm for a future White House run is waning.
Since leaving office, Harris has reportedly been weighing a presidential bid against a potential run for governor of California, where Gov. Gavin Newsom is barred from seeking another term next year. According to aides, she plans to make a final decision by the end of the summer.
While Harris would likely start as the early frontrunner in a crowded 2028 Democratic primary, recent data suggests her support may be fragile. A Fox News segment highlighted a political betting market where only 4% of users believe Harris will succeed President Donald Trump. Trump Jr. mocked the result, quipping that Harris’s odds are about the same as his father being elected to a third term.
Instead, Vice President J.D. Vance is dominating the field with 28% support, while Gavin Newsom trails far behind in second place at 14%. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg—who has formally entered the race—and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)—who has hinted at a run—are tied for third at 11% each.
California isn’t looking like friendly territory for the former vice president either. Polls from May show the state’s liberal base is uninterested in a governor singularly focused on battling Trump, instead signaling a desire for a fresh face who can bring real change to Sacramento.
“I sense that this is the best shot for someone to be elected statewide in California who’s not a Democrat for at least 20 years, and I think the evident reason for that is the failure of one-party rule,” Steve Hilton, a Republican candidate in the race, said in response to the news.
“The candidate who’s going to win in 2026, regardless of party label, is the change candidate. Kamala Harris is the one who least represents change,” he added.
